Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 2182
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 16, 2011, 12:30 PM MDT for 5 states. It was in force for 60 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 16, 2011, 12:30 PM MDT (18:30 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 16, 2011, 1:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 60 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 27 counties
Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Grant County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Morton County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Harding County, NM, Quay County, NM, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Moore County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Sherman County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 207 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 640 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 146 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 121 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
519
ACUS11 KWNS 161831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161830
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-161930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...WRN OK
PANHANDLE...NWRN TX PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161830Z - 161930Z
AN ISOLATED SVR STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
NERN NM...SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...THE WRN OK PANHANDLE AND NWRN TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.
RECENT TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER SERN CO...AND IS JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW...SUBTLE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN
NM AND SRN CO...AND IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. AS ASCENT AND
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUE TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SERN CO AND NERN NM TOWARD 19-20Z...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 500 J/KG. OVER SWRN KS AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN ERODING THROUGH THE
MORNING. FURTHER HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH A
SURFACE MOIST AXIS /DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPR 50S/ WILL
LEAD TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
1500 J PER KG BASED ON RUC OUTPUT/ THAT MAY AID IN MAINTENANCE OF
NM/CO ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM INTO KS/OK/TX BY MID-AFTERNOON. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK /AOB 20 KT/...S-SWLY WINDS IN THE 0-1
KM AGL LAYER VEER TO W-SWLY IN THE MIDLEVELS...RESULTING IN
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KT/ FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS WILL POSE
A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
..GARNER.. 09/16/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 38180389 38470240 38090080 36470084 35290181 34960304
35170410 36980467 38180389Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.