Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 2108

September 3, 20116 counties in North Carolina; 40 counties in Virginia; 9 counties in West Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 3, 2011, 1:29 PM EDT for 6 counties in North Carolina; 40 counties in Virginia; 9 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 91 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 3, 2011, 1:29 PM EDT (17:29 UTC)
Expired
Sep 3, 2011, 3:00 PM EDT
In force
91 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 55 counties

Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Albemarle County, VA, Alleghany County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Henry County, VA, Highland County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Greenbrier County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Pendleton County, WV, Pocahontas County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Summers County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Webster County, WV

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 73 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2011-09-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1125 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2011-09-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 104 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1125 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-63 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
471 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
104 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
116 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

355 
ACUS11 KWNS 031730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031729
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-031900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WV...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL VA...FAR NWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031729Z - 031900Z

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WV AND WRN/CNTRL VA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK SLOWLY SWD WITH STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATED CONVECTION WAS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WV AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP SWD WITH CONTINUED HEATING ACROSS WRN
AND CNTRL VA INTO FAR NWRN NC. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...SBCAPE VALUES WERE ALREADY APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ACROSS
THIS REGION. ADDITIONALLY...MORNING ROABS FROM RNK AND GSO INDICATED
AN EML ABOVE THE 850 MB LAYER WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7 C/KM. COUPLED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AT LEAST
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS PRESENTING MAINLY A DOWNBURST
THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS.

GIVEN A LACK OF STRONGER FLOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED.

..LEITMAN.. 09/03/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   38618053 38838039 39038000 39047983 39037932 38977896
            38707871 38257850 37937848 37517855 37027878 36757912
            36417986 36228069 36108140 36068183 36148194 36298191
            36668168 37008154 38008099 38618053

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.