Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 1985
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 15, 2011, 3:22 AM CDT for 5 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 15, 2011, 3:22 AM CDT (08:22 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 15, 2011, 5:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Burleigh County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Oliver County, ND
The radar
The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 74 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1399 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -128 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1398 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 104 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 222 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 7.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
239
ACUS11 KWNS 150823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150822
NDZ000-151045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ND.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 150822Z - 151045Z
ISOLATED SVR TSTM OVER NWRN ND...MOVING FROM MCKENZIE INTO NRN DUNN
COUNTY AS OF 08Z...MAY CONTINUE TO POSE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SEWD
TOWARD BIS AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OR UPSCALE GROWTH APPEARS RATHER NEBULOUS ATTM...GIVEN
PRESENCE OF NONTRIVIAL CINH AND SMALL SPATIAL SCALE OF MOST
FAVORABLE FOCI. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY FORM NEARBY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
SHORT-FUSE GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED VWP WIND TRENDS INDICATE 850-MB
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED/REDEVELOPED NEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND EXTENDS
NEAR LINE FROM NEAR SDY-DIK-PHP...WITH MOST AXIS AT THAT LEVEL
PARALLEL AND TO ITS N FROM NEAR ISN-BIS-MBG. ALONG AND JUST E OF
THIS BOUNDARY...STG SLY WIND COMPONENT WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OF 30-40 KT. STRONGEST/ELEVATED
LOW-LEVEL LIFT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG OR JUST NE OF FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD DRIFT EWD THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS. ACCOMPANYING
CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY MINIMIZED MUCINH...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT SUPPORTING MUCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG...MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN
NWRN ND ACTIVITY INTO PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN SD. HOWEVER...MUCINH
SHOULD STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY ONCE SUCH TRENDS COMMENCE. VWP
AND MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR--I.E.
EFFECTIVE MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT FOR NEXT 3-4 HOURS.
..EDWARDS.. 08/15/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
LAT...LON 47680301 48000198 47960108 47329999 46499996 46060067
46610162 47680301SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 8:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Emmons, Grant, Logan, McIntosh, Morton, Sioux | 93 min |
| Aug 15, 3:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Billings, Bowman, Dunn, Grant, Hettinger and 7 more | 58 min |
| Aug 15, 5:23 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burleigh, Dunn, Emmons and 21 more | 9 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.