Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 196

March 6, 20115 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 6, 2011, 1:29 PM EST for 5 counties in Florida. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 6, 2011, 1:29 PM EST (18:29 UTC)
Expired: Mar 6, 2011, 3:30 PM EST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Indian River County, FL, Martin County, FL, Okeechobee County, FL, Palm Beach County, FL, Saint Lucie County, FL

The radar

The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Miami, FL (KMFL), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 422 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 699 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 132 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 201 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

881 
ACUS11 KWNS 061829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061829 
FLZ000-062030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 061829Z - 062030Z

WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS INTERIOR INTO EAST
CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THIS IS
GENERALLY OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
...AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MOISTENING CONTRIBUTES TO WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION.  AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...VEERING OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR/EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE VERO BEACH AND PALM BEACH
AREAS BY 20-22Z.  IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG
DESTABILIZATION...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW INCREASING IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG...THIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THIS OCCURS...RELATIVE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SHEAR BENEATH 30+ KT 500 MB FLOW COULD
PROMOTE THE RISK FOR HAIL.  ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE LOW...THE
POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR.. 03/06/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   27178110 27778076 27818037 27087993 26628006 26338028
            26238075 26578112 27178110

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 5, 8:12 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson, Okaloosa and 2 more	93 min
Mar 5, 10:19 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Gadsden, Liberty	56 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.