Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 1849

August 4, 20114 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 4, 2011, 2:10 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 80 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 4, 2011, 2:10 AM CDT (07:10 UTC)
Expired
Aug 4, 2011, 3:30 AM CDT
In force
80 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 66 counties

Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Pope County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Washington County, AR, Allen County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Labette County, KS, Linn County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Shannon County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Washington County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Ottawa County, OK

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 23 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2011-08-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3561 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2011-08-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 4 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3561 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-36 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2210 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
81 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

947 
ACUS11 KWNS 040710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040710 COR
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1849
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK..SE KS...SCNTRL MO...NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 040710Z - 040830Z

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE OZARKS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE
ACTIVITY. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR.

A LARGE MCS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS IS LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE OF AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWING A POCKET OF
HIGHER SFC-BASED CAPE LOCATED IN SRN MO AND NW AR. IN ADDITION...A
POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXISTS ACROSS SCNTRL MO WHERE
850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE ESTIMATED TO EXCEED 7.0 C/KM. THE MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS WITH ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MAY ENABLE THE LINE-SEGMENT...CURRENTLY IN SE KS...TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS EWD PROPAGATION TAKES PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF THE LINE-SEGMENT
CAN OBTAIN A BOWING STRUCTURE. IN SPITE OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT...THE
MORE INTENSE CELLS WILL ALSO HAVE A HAIL THREAT DUE TO THE STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..BROYLES.. 08/04/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37979087 38899277 38649384 38429477 38229519 37649546
            37189551 36629545 35919463 35199390 35339281 36939128
            37979087

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 4, 8:06 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Independence and 8 more4 hr
Aug 4, 1:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Clark, Cleveland, Conway, Dallas, Faulkner and 26 more56 min
Aug 3, 10:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Chase, Chautauqua, Coffey, Dickinson and 10 more54 min
Aug 4, 2:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Logan, Rawlins, Sherman, Thomas and 1 more87 min
Aug 4, 3:28 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarton, Bates, Benton, Camden, Cedar, Christian and 32 more7 hr
Aug 4, 6:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Bollinger, Camden, Cape Girardeau, Cole, Crawford and 30 more86 min
Aug 4, 10:21 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMississippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot, Scott84 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.