Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 182

March 4, 201130 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 4, 2011, 5:36 AM EST for 30 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 4, 2011, 5:36 AM EST (10:36 UTC)
Expired
Mar 4, 2011, 9:30 AM EST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 30 counties

Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Bay County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Clare County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Lake County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 194 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2011-03-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2011-03-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 286 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2392 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
286 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
378 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

135 
ACUS11 KWNS 041036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041036 
MIZ000-041430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 041036Z - 041430Z

AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CNTRL/NRN LOWER MI FROM THE
WEST AFTER 11Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...WITH RATES
UP TO 0.05 INCH PER HOUR ANTICIPATED.

THE SHIELD OF RAIN THAT FORMED OVER PORTIONS OF WI AND NERN IA IN
RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED
E-NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MI DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SFC
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CNTRL/NRN LOWER MI ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN. WHILE SLEET OR EVEN SNOW MAY
MIX WITH THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT
ESPECIALLY GIVEN WEAKENING/SHALLOW ASCENT. AS SUCH...FREEZING RAIN
IS FORECAST TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. THE 08Z RUN OF THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATES LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES UP TO 0.05 IN/HR
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH THE PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING.

..COHEN.. 03/04/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43528388 43208552 43438650 44488649 44988581 45228443
            44988322 44218313 43528388

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.