Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 1702

July 22, 20116 counties in Minnesota; 21 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 22, 2011, 10:11 PM CDT for 6 counties in Minnesota; 21 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 64 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 22, 2011, 10:11 PM CDT (03:11 UTC)
Expired: Jul 22, 2011, 11:15 PM CDT
In force: 64 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch possible

All 27 counties

Becker County, MN, Clay County, MN, Grant County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cass County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Foster County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, McHenry County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Steele County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Traill County, ND, Wells County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676Jul 23, 1:45 AM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1986 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -16 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1048 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 97 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 219 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.4
Supercell composite: 7.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

164 
ACUS11 KWNS 230311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230311 COR
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-230415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN ND...NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 230311Z - 230415Z

CORRECTED FOR WFOS IN POINTS PRODUCT

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AND ERN ND
INTO NWRN MN. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL ND 120
TO 150 STATUTE MILES TO THE NORTH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD
ACROSS SRN ND INTO NERN SD. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 250 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE
WITH LESS INSTABILITY THE FURTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS MOVES NEWD
ACROSS CNTRL ND. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL ND LATE
THIS EVENING SHOW 40 OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WHICH SUPPORT SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A LARGE CLUSTER OF
STORMS CAN ORGANIZE.

..BROYLES.. 07/23/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   47279568 47979742 48569891 48799996 48740062 48500115
            48060121 47620099 47220028 46969977 46539917 46329820
            45969747 45829646 45969555 46349521 46949532 47279568

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 22, 10:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Becker, Clay, Clearwater, Grant, Hubbard, Mahnomen and 6 more	7 hr
Jul 23, 1:25 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Becker, Big Stone, Clay, Clearwater, Douglas, Grant and 13 more	35 min
Jul 23, 1:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Becker, Benton, Big Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Grant and 20 more	5 hr
Jul 23, 4:38 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aitkin, Anoka, Becker, Benton, Big Stone, Carver and 36 more	67 min
Jul 23, 9:37 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Fillmore, Houston, Olmsted, Wabasha, Winona	53 min
Jul 23, 10:14 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Dodge, Fillmore, Houston, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha and 1 more	4 hr
Jul 23, 1:10 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Houston	65 min
Jul 23, 1:52 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anoka, Benton, Blue Earth, Brown, Carver, Chippewa and 40 more	83 min
Jul 22, 8:56 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burke, Burleigh, Divide and 21 more	94 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.