Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 162
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 28, 2011, 12:04 AM EST for 24 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 28, 2011, 12:04 AM EST (05:04 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 28, 2011, 6:00 AM EST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 24 counties
Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Bay County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Huron County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI
The radar
The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 97 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 593 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 87 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 308 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 401 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
715
ACUS11 KWNS 280505
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280504
MIZ000-281100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 280504Z - 281100Z
A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES WILL OVERSPREAD CNTRL AND PORTIONS OF SRN
LOWER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...WITH RATES OF 0.05 INCH PER
HOUR POSSIBLE.
A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATIFORM PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE DISCUSSION AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SUSTAINED BY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT 04Z...SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
THUMB OF LOWER MI TO NEAR MKG. AS SFC LOW PRESSURE ACCELERATES NEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INTENSIFY...ALLOW THE SFC FREEZING LINE TO DROP SEWD...MOST
NOTABLY AFTER 07Z ACCORDING TO THE RUC MODEL.
TO THE NORTH OF THE FREEZING LINE...A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS
EXPECTED...AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS NERN IL THIS
EVENING. FREEZING RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH RATES OF 0.05 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE FEATURING TEMPERATURES AOA 3C
ALLOWS FALLING PRECIP TO MELT PRIOR TO FREEZING AT THE SFC...AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY / MUCAPE VALUES AOA 100 J/KG PER RUC ANALYSIS /
SPREADS NWD. THIS COULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN. FARTHER
NORTH...COLDER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SLEET AND SNOW...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND SNOW SPREADING
SEWD AFTER 07Z. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION BY 11Z.
..COHEN.. 02/28/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 43028297 42598391 42258492 42058606 42478648 42938666
43518636 43858488 43978343 43918279 43658253 43028297Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.