Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 1561

July 10, 201114 counties in Colorado; 13 counties in Kansas; 17 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 10, 2011, 3:02 PM MDT for 14 counties in Colorado; 13 counties in Kansas; 17 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 10, 2011, 3:02 PM MDT (21:02 UTC)
Expired: Jul 10, 2011, 5:00 PM MDT
In force: 118 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 44 counties

Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Logan County, CO, Otero County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Washington County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Decatur County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Logan County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Arthur County, NE, Chase County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Garden County, NE, Grant County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Keith County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Logan County, NE, McPherson County, NE, Perkins County, NE, Red Willow County, NE, Thomas County, NE

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 36 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 619Jul 10, 6:25 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 22 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -232 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2266 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 74 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 95 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

090 
ACUS11 KWNS 102102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102102 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-102300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1561
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB...ERN CO...FAR WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 102102Z - 102300Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. ORGANIZATION MAY BE MESSY AT FIRST
WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS NEB OR NWRN KS.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30-45 KT WITH SLIGHTLY VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILES.
THEREFORE...SOME SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS
MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN BUT MORE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT ARE NOW
FORMING OVER SWRN NEB INTO THE INCREASING UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR.
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-3000 J/KG FROM FAR ERN CO INTO WRN NEB/KS
WILL HELP SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND GIVEN LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS/LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN A LACK OF FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON OTHER THAN STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...COVERAGE MAY REMAIN
RATHER ISOLATED UNTIL A ROUGHLY 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO
INCREASE AROUND 00Z.

..LEITMAN.. 07/10/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40420019 39310057 38240100 37470144 37170190 37100251
            37140316 37290378 37440411 37920420 38690419 40540327
            41640247 42150192 42370133 42350072 42080023 41940020
            41560009 40420019

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 9, 7:11 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Elbert, Kiowa and 9 more	94 min
Jul 10, 12:03 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boyd, Holt, Knox, Rock	117 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.