Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 1149

June 9, 201118 counties in New York; 12 counties in Ohio; 12 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 9, 2011, 8:13 AM EDT for 18 counties in New York; 12 counties in Ohio; 12 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 9, 2011, 8:13 AM EDT (12:13 UTC)
Expired
Jun 9, 2011, 10:15 AM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 42 counties

Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, Ashtabula County, OH, Cuyahoga County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Lake County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Medina County, OH, Portage County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Clarion County, PA, Crawford County, PA, Elk County, PA, Erie County, PA, Forest County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Potter County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Venango County, PA, Warren County, PA

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 107 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2011-06-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1369 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2011-06-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -36 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1369 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-172 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1311 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-1 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

591 
ACUS11 KWNS 091213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091213 
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-091415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...NWRN PA...WRN  AND NRN NY...PORTIONS OF
WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449...

VALID 091213Z - 091415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449
CONTINUES.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED S TO THE OH RIVER THIS MORNING...AND
HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS NWRN PA AND WRN NY. A FEW STORMS REMAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT DID NOT GROW UPSCALE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WILL NOW SHIFT NEWD INTO ERN NY AND SRN
NEW ENGLAND...WHERE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM IN A ZONE OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION...AND ALONG A COLD FRONT FARTHER N INTO SRN QUEBEC.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT STRONG. WITH STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING...AND INCREASING FORCING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL EXIST FOR
STRONG WINDS...AND SOME CLUSTERS MAY ORGANIZE WITH SWATHS OF
DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE QUITE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS FOR EVOLVING THREATS.

..JEWELL.. 06/09/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   42027622 40368231 41118202 42668059 43757624 42027622

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 8, 8:36 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCayuga, Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer, Jefferson, Lewis and 6 more84 min
Jun 8, 8:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCayuga, Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer, Jefferson, Lewis and 9 more3 hr
Jun 9, 3:29 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Livingston and 10 more2 hr
Jun 9, 3:56 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung, Erie and 14 more6 hr
Jun 9, 10:36 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlbany, Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chemung and 30 more84 min
Jun 9, 11:33 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlbany, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland and 16 more57 min
Jun 9, 12:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlbany, Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Clinton and 28 more8 hr
Jun 9, 1:45 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBronx, Dutchess, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange and 6 more90 min
Jun 9, 2:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange, Putnam and 5 more7 hr
Jun 9, 3:18 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlbany, Broome, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland, Delaware and 20 more87 min
Jun 9, 4:17 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBronx, Dutchess, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange and 5 more88 min
Jun 9, 7:17 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlbany, Bronx, Columbia, Dutchess, Fulton, Greene and 19 more58 min
Jun 9, 12:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAthens, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton, Gallia and 14 more7 hr
Jun 9, 6:31 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Clermont, Hamilton89 min
Jun 9, 6:17 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cumberland, Fayette and 8 more58 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.