Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 1114

June 6, 2011Clay County, Wilkin County, Minnesota; 10 counties in North Dakota; Campbell County, Corson County, McPherson County, South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 6, 2011, 3:51 PM CDT for Clay County, Wilkin County, Minnesota; 10 counties in North Dakota; Campbell County, Corson County, McPherson County, South Dakota. It was in force for 54 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 6, 2011, 3:51 PM CDT (20:51 UTC)
Expired: Jun 6, 2011, 4:45 PM CDT
In force: 54 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Clay County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Cass County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Emmons County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Campbell County, SD, Corson County, SD, McPherson County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 142 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1766 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -151 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1303 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 105 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

272 
ACUS11 KWNS 062051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062051 
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-062145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL SD / SERN ND / PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 062051Z - 062145Z

MONITORING PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL SD ENEWD THROUGH SERN ND AND INTO
W-CNTRL MN FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE 22-01Z
PERIOD.  A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...CONDITIONAL UPON STORM
INITIATION...WOULD INCLUDE PRIMARILY LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL.  A WW WILL BECOME POSSIBLE IF/ONCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE ARE APPARENT.

RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1003 MB LOW 30 MI SW MBG WITH THE
PRIMARY FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MT/WY/SD BORDER ENEWD INVOF FAR. 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD ELONGATED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
IS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.  ONE
IMPEDIMENT ATTM IS THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD.  A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS THE DEPICTION OF A RUC ANALYZED WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
MOVING NEWD FROM THE BLACK HILLS TOWARDS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH CONTINUED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY PROVE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE STORMS WITHIN AN ALREADY WEAKENED CAP.

THE MAGNITUDE OF MLCAPE AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WLYS WILL SUPPORT RAPID STORM
INTENSIFICATION.  THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OWING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP A
MOIST/CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE PBL...WITH PERHAPS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO NEAR THE WIND SHIFT AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH/LOW LEVEL SHEAR
INCREASE THIS EVENING.

..SMITH.. 06/06/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45250123 45380164 45690192 45960187 47069677 46949610
            46659579 46359586 45250123

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 6, 1:08 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Blue Earth, Brown, Carver, Dakota, Dodge, Faribault and 17 more	2 hr
Jun 6, 2:09 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Blue Earth, Dakota, Dodge, Fillmore, Freeborn, Goodhue and 11 more	8 hr
Jun 6, 4:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Aurora, Bennett, Brule, Buffalo, Butte, Charles Mix and 18 more	7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.