Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 1111

June 6, 201116 counties in Michigan; 6 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 6, 2011, 3:02 PM EDT for 16 counties in Michigan; 6 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 6, 2011, 3:02 PM EDT (19:02 UTC)
Expired: Jun 6, 2011, 5:00 PM EDT
In force: 118 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 22 counties

Alger County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Baraga County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Delta County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iron County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Marquette County, MI, Menominee County, MI, Schoolcraft County, MI, Door County, WI, Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Vilas County, WI

The radar

The Marquette radar (KMQT), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1658 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 123 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 150 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

471 
ACUS11 KWNS 061903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061902
MIZ000-WIZ000-062100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER PENINSULA OF MI/NERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061902Z - 062100Z

STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS WRN UPPER MI AND
ADJACENT NRN WI...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL
EVIDENT.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING CU FIELD ALONG A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN UPPER MI...WHERE 500 TO 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE HAS DEVELOPED ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER CU INCREASE -- AND EVENTUAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
-- OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

ALOFT...THIS REGION LIES ON THE NRN FRINGE OF FLAT MID-LEVEL
RIDGING...WITH 40 TO 50 KT WLYS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT MAY REMAIN ISOLATED.  HOWEVER...IF
STORMS CAN MERGE/EXPAND ALONG A FUTURE CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW...THREAT FOR A FORWARD/ESEWD-PROPAGATING SYSTEM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE COULD EVOLVE -- AND EVENTUALLY
AFFECT PARTS OF ERN UPPER MI AND NRN LOWER MI.

..GOSS.. 06/06/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...

LAT...LON   45878993 46279032 46838873 46528594 45528433 44358532
            44938800 45878993

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 6, 2:08 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Buffalo, Crawford, Grant, Iowa, La Crosse, Lafayette and 2 more	2 hr
Jun 6, 3:09 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Buffalo, Chippewa, Clark, Columbia, Crawford and 17 more	8 hr
Jun 6, 7:15 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Green, Jefferson and 8 more	90 min
Jun 6, 8:00 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Brown, Calumet, Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac and 21 more	5 hr
Jun 6, 11:12 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Calumet, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Marathon and 11 more	93 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.