Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 1102

June 5, 201133 counties in North Carolina; 16 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 5, 2011, 4:15 PM EDT for 33 counties in North Carolina; 16 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 60 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 5, 2011, 4:15 PM EDT (20:15 UTC)
Expired: Jun 5, 2011, 5:15 PM EDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 49 counties

Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Anson County, NC, Avery County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Polk County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Union County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Florence County, SC, Horry County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Lee County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

The radar

The Columbia radar (KCAE), 136 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 29 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -360 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1836 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -18 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -5 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

814 
ACUS11 KWNS 052016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052015
NCZ000-SCZ000-052115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN NC / CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052015Z - 052115Z

IF STORM COVERAGE INCREASES...A DMGG WIND THREAT MAY ENSUE ACROSS
WRN PORTIONS OF NC TOWARDS THE CHARLOTTE METRO.  OTHER ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
ZONE NEAR THE NC-SC BORDER FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN NWWD TOWARDS THE
I-73/74 CORRIDOR...THIS MAY TOO RESULT IN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
DMGG WIND GUSTS.

MESOANALYSIS PLACES A FRONT FROM NEAR THE NC-SC COAST NWWD TO 25 MI
E AVL AND ITS PRIMARILY IDENTIFIED BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
ZONE WITHIN A DECAYING THERMAL GRADIENT.  NEAR AND N OF THIS
ZONE...ISOLD STORMS HAVE ARISEN FROM A TCU FIELD OVER THE MTNS OF
WRN NC AND A THICKENING PATCH OF CU EXTENDS SEWD TOWARDS ILM.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THIS
REGION...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED STORM COVERAGE THOUGHT TO BE
OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.  GIVEN THE BACKGROUND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ON THE FRINGE OF MODEST MID
LEVEL NWLYS...SOME LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE FORM OF FORWARD
PROPAGATING TSTM CLUSTER MAY DEVELOP IF STORMGENESIS CONTINUES TO
OCCUR.  THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF
WIND DMGG OWING TO STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO AS TO
WHETHER A WW NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED.

..SMITH.. 06/05/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34608208 35198245 35788244 36408157 36528103 36328039
            35207902 34667859 34067844 33787881 33817954 34608208

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 5, 5:45 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Jackson, Macon	60 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.