Special Weather Statement, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
316 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE DRYING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET
OF STABLE AIR OVER NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND EXPECT THAT
WHEN THAT DISSIPATES...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. WITH BETTER SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE...STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH HAVE MORE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN
UTAH THIS EVENING...AND CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. IN SOUTHERN UTAH...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS FLASH FLOODING. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...AND WILL
MOVE SLOWLY.

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW...BEFORE A DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND BRING DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN UTAH
THURSDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE...AGAIN INITIATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE THURSDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A DRYING TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE
RETURNING TO THE CWA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH
03Z...WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS BEING THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
TOMORROW...DEVELOPING FIRST ON THE TERRAIN BEFORE MOVING INTO
ADJACENT VALLEYS. ASIDE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE
GREATEST THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

A BUILDING WEST COAST TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE DEEP MOISTURE TO SLIDE
TO OUR EAST BEGINNING THURSDAY WITH A DRYING TREND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH THURSDAY TO
SUPPORT A THREAT OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WEST DESERTS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL. EXPECTING A
GREATER THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST
DESERTS FRIDAY...AS DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...HOSENFELD
FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
440 AM MDT TUE AUG 2 2011

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-031200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
440 AM MDT TUE AUG 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND FAR SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THEN SPREAD INTO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AGAIN BY MIDNIGHT BUT SOME WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT OF LOCAL
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEY WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
NUMEROUS THAN WEDNESDAY. THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

IT IS STILL FORECAST TO BE DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
458 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2011

UTZ005-022345-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS UT-
458 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL TOOELE COUNTY UNTIL 545
PM MDT...

AT 453 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES EAST OF
WENDOVER TO 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KNOLLS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THIS
COULD CREATE STRONG CROSSWINDS ON INTERSTATE 80 FROM WENDOVER TO
ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF WENDOVER...WITH HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES MOST
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THESE WINDS. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION
WHEN DRIVING THROUGH AREAS WITH STRONG CROSSWINDS.

LAT...LON 4086 11371 4080 11302 4033 11355 4067 11398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 230DEG 22KT 4074 11380 4053 11358

SCHOENING