Special Weather Statement, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
422 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW WILL PUSH THIS MOISTURE EAST
OF UTAH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH. AS EXPECTED...THE
FOCUS HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UTAH...WITH SOME STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. WESTERN UTAH HAS HAD A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WITH THE BEST STORMS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST CORNER...AS WELL AS A LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVED OFF THE
OQUIRRH MOUNTAINS AND DROPPED MORE THAN 0.20 INCHES OF PRECIP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SALT LAKE VALLEY.

THE MOISTURE FUELING THESE STORMS IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED
OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE GUSTY WITH THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DESERTS WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THIS EVENING.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AS IT IS GENERALLY HARD TO
ELIMINATE THE MOISTURE COMPLETELY FROM THE AREA...AND THE NAM
INDICATES THAT SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER EVEN AFTER THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. NEVERTHELESS...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE
GREATLY DIMINISHED WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS...AS GFS FORECASTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP FROM 1.0 INCHES TODAY DOWN TO 0.4
INCHES BY 00Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...THE AREA WILL SEE NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AS A MEAN TROUGH SITS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING WHEN SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE CWA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY
ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE
EXTENDED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
ALONG THE SPINE OF UTAH. THESE POPS ARE SOMEWHAT ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...AND WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED EVEN MORE IF
TIMING REMAINS CONSISTENT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF REACHING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH UNTIL AROUND 04Z WHEN THEY TURN
NORTHWEST. KSLC TERMINAL WILL HAVE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM AS WELL THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND BRINGING DRIER AIR
TO THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FIRE ZONE 420 THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...AND THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH MANY OF THE STORMS. IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
STORMS...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC. A DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO
WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ420.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ005.

WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD
AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
246 AM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-201315-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
246 AM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE
PRIMARILY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION MID WEEK ENDING THE THREAT OF
RAINFALL FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
DESERTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING. THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES AS WELL AS PROVIDING DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
UTAH AGAIN STARTING SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
317 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

UTZ002-003-007-192200-
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT UT-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS UT-WASATCH
MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH UT-
317 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAVIS AND CENTRAL
SALT LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

AT 315 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WEST VALLEY CITY TO
HERRIMAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   NORTH SALT LAKE... MIDVALE... SANDY AND  TAYLORSVILLE...
   WOODS CROSS... COTTONWOOD HEIGHTS... MURRAY AND SOUTH SALT
  LAKE...
   BOUNTIFUL... HOLLADAY... SALT LAKE CITY AND  SUGARHOUSE...
   UNIVERSITY OF UTAH...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4092 11185 4061 11180 4051 11183 4047 11209
      4075 11212
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 222DEG 29KT 4073 11203 4056 11203

SEAMAN

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