Wind Advisory 10, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM LUBBOCK...TO
DUMONT TO JUST SOUTH OF PADUCAH. THE FRONT IS MAKING STEADY
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL REACH KABI JUST
AFTER 00Z...KSJT BY 03Z AND KJCT BY 05Z. STRONG NORTH WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS...AND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONG WINDS MAY
RESULT IN SOME BLOWING DUST...MAINLY AT KSJT AND KABI...AND HAVE
INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. BLOWING DUST CAN BE SEEN
ON SATELLITE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. A NORTHWEST
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR BLOWING DUST
MOVING INTO OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND WILL
MAKE AMENDS TO THE TAFS AS NEEDED...IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING BRINGING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING
QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TOWARD WEST TEXAS.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR
AMARILLO. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWING A CUMULUS FIELD AND
EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL LIKELY SEE THE FRONT HEAD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...REACHING ABILENE
SOMETIME BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM...AND CLEARING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO TEMPORARILY GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE...BUT STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT
LIVED...SO NOT PLANNING ON A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. WE COULD
SEE SOME BLOWING DUST FOR A BRIEF TIME BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL.
WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY FOR JUST THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY COUNTIES FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH VERY
DRY AIRMASS...THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. WINDS SHOULD STAY IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS SHOULD ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR AREA...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO WEST
TEXAS. COULD EVEN HAVE A FEW UPPER 30S LOWS IN THE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE
WEDNESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO EAST TEXAS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY...AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
RETURN FLOW CONTINUES.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE GFS DROPS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND TEXAS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
/LOWER 80S/ AND SATURDAY /LOWER TO MID 80S/. WITH INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE WARMER AS WELL /IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S/. THE GFS INDICATES A
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. FOR NOW CARRYING A LESS THAN 15 POP IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...PENDING MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH
THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 49  70  42  76  45 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN ANGELO 	 51  71  41  77  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
JUNCTION 	 55  73  38  77  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DANIELS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
306 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-182015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
306 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST...ESPECIALLY NEAR OPEN FIELDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.