Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS San Angelo, TX

652 
WWUS54 KSJT 020528
SVSSJT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1228 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

TXC049-020537-
/O.CAN.KSJT.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-110502T0545Z/
BROWN TX-
1228 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL BROWN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS EXITED BROWN COUNTY. 
THEREFORE..THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BROWN COUNTY IS 
CANCELLED.


LAT...LON 3185 9901 3195 9908 3197 9908 3209 9902
      3209 9893 3205 9890 3196 9883 3193 9883
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 223DEG 19KT 3205 9885

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1153 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST RUC AND NAM DATA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. ALOFT...THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. I
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TERMINALS. I DID
ADJUST MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND MOS
GUIDANCE. PLUS...I DID ADD A THUNDERSTORM IDENTIFIER TO THE 18Z
PREVAILING SKY ELEMENT. BY 03Z MONDAY EVENING...EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER EAST.

HUBER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ANALYSIS OF VAPOR VAPOR
LOOP INDICATES MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...WITH A POSITIVE
TILT...EXTENDS FROM COLORADO SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA.
OVERLAYING THE GFS40 500 MB HEIGHTS ON THIS LOOP REVEALS LITTLE IF
ANY 500 MB DIFFLUENCE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST WSR-88D DATA
INDICATE NO ECHOS OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME. ANALYSIS
OF THE NAM AND GFS 300 K AND 305 K THETA-E SURFACES INDICATES
BETTER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THUS...I
DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST 6
HOURS OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD AND CHANCE WEATHER GRIDS TO ONLY RAIN
SHOWERS. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...I CHANGED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM
LIKELY TO EITHER ISOLATED OR SCATTERED WHILE LEAVING POPS
UNCHANGED. LATEST ZONE PRODUCT REFLECTS THESE CHANGES.

HUBER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDY SKIES BEHIND
IT. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TO THE
50S ELSEWHERE. ALL THE CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL APPROACH THE CWA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...BETTER DYNAMICS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS..SO LEFT THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WERE A BIT TRICKY. CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S MOST AREAS.
TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT...BUT NOT AS LOW AS MET MOS
GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN
SLOWLY SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. KEPT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OUT
WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY MID AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL END RAPIDLY
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST...BUT HAVE
NARROWED DOWN THAT AREA A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...SO IF SKIES CLEAR FAST
ENOUGH...AND IF NOT TOO MUCH RAIN FALLS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO
DEWPOINTS CAN DROP EASILY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING DOWN NEAR RECORD VALUES. COLDEST TEMPERATURE IN SJT EVER
FOR MAY IS 35 DEGREES...33 FOR ABILENE...AND THESE MAY BE IN SOME
JEOPARDY IS EVERYTHING FELL JUST RIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE SPS.

REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY QUIET...AND FEW CHANGES PLANNED
TO WHAT WAS IN THE FORECASTS ALREADY. SLOW WARM UP THROUGH MID
WEEK...NOT SEEING HIGHS BACK IN THE 90S UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE GONE BACK AND FORTH WITH THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT TRYING TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA...BUT NEITHER THE GFS OR THE ECMWF SHOW
MUCH UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MODELS UNCERTAINTY...CONTENT TO
LEAVE THE MENTION OF THE FRONT OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 39  50  35  68  46 /  60  50  10   0   0
SAN ANGELO 	 41  55  35  70  42 /  60  50  10   0   0
JUNCTION 	 44  54  35  72  40 /  60  50  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HUBER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
256 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-022000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
256 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DANIELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
742 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CLYDE                   32.40N  99.50W
05/01/2011                   CALLAHAN           TX   NWS STORM SURVEY

            NWS SURVEY FOUND WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE IN
            CALLAHAN COUNTY AND THE COMMUNITY OF CLYDE AND ESTIMATED
            WINDS CAUSING THIS DAMAGE TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 90 TO
            100 MPH. TREES UPROOTED...DAMAGE TO ROOFS...AND
            MANUFACTURED HOMES BLOWN OFF OF THEIR FOUNDATIONS.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER SJT1100166

PM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1154 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

TXZ140-020530-
BROWN TX-
1154 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1230 AM CDT FOR BROWN
COUNTY...

AT 1152 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKE BROWNWOOD
NEAR BYRDS STORE...OR ABOUT 13 MILES NORTH OF EARLY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MAY BY MIDNIGHT CDT

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

04