Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
339 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011

.SHORT TERM...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WITH INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE/
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 40-50 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXISTS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. HAVE 20 OR LESS POPS GOING AT THIS TIME BASED ON COVERAGE...
BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE...SIMILAR TO TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR AREA. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO
TODAY...SUGGESTING A BREAKABLE CAP. WITH LACK OF AN APPARENT
DISTURBANCE HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS NON-MENTIONABLE ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
APPEARS THAT RECORD BREAKING HOT WEEKEND UPCOMING FOR WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS OVER THE AREA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO CLIMB BY 1 OR 2 DEGREES
CELSIUS...BOOSTING READINGS WELL ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK. WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY TRIES TO SLIDE INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLE BY
MONDAY...AND MAY PRODUCE AN AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. IF THIS HAPPENS...NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW OF THESE STORMS SOUTH INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...BOUNDARIES MAY END UP FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR TUESDAY...AND MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
STORMS. BUT ALREADY HAVE ENOUGH IFS IN THIS FORECAST...WITH
UNCERTAINTY INCREASING. WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS FARTHER SOUTH.
&&

.CLIMATE...
CURRENT RECORDS FOR...
           ABILENE    SAN ANGELO
SATURDAY...103-1999   106-2002
SUNDAY.....104-1943   105-1940
MONDAY.....103-1943   103-1943

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 78 103  74 104  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
SAN ANGELO 	 77 104  74 106  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
JUNCTION 	 76 103  73 105  73 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

19/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
249 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-262000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
249 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES TO IGNITE WILDFIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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