Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
404 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH A NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL JET MAX
ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO...MID LEVEL WINDS
WERE INCREASING ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...A DRYLINE EXTENDED ALONG A VERNON TO SWEETWATER TO
SANDERSON LINE. THE 3KM HRRR INDICATES STORMS EXPLODING ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z...THEN
SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS AFTER 23Z THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
DUE TO SBCAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO DCAPES OF
1000 TO 1500 KG. ALSO...REAL INTENSE ELEVATED CORES MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

FOR TUESDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. GOING WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
DUE TO SBCAPES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100.

.LONG TERM...
POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
REMAINING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONE
NEGATIVE FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IMPACTING THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS
COOLING ALOFT TAKES PLACE...VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
BE IN PLACE TO IMPEDE UPWARD MOTION ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO WE COULD SEE
SOME LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO AN INCH. HOWEVER...MOST
AREAS AFFECTED BY THE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SEE ONE HALF INCH OR
LESS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT IS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND
HEARTLAND AREAS. WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL SO HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. SHOULD THE AREA RECEIVE
RAINFALL...THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LONG TERM DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THE AREA NEEDS SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL TO MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CURRENT DROUGHT.

FOLLOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL THROUGH MIDWEEK...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET BACK UP OVER THE AREA BRINGING HOT SUMMER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF RH VALUES LESS THAN 20
PERCENT...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ALSO...THERE ARE SEVERAL ON GOING WILDFIRES
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY...HEARTLAND...AND
CROCKETT COUNTY. ALSO...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR WILDFIRES.
ALSO...ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING INDUCED WILDFIRES ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 75  94  71  95  72 /  20  40  40  10  10
SAN ANGELO 	 78 100  72  98  73 /  10  30  40  20  10
JUNCTION 	 78  97  74  96  73 /  10  20  40  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BROWN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...HASKELL...JONES...
NOLAN...RUNNELS...TAYLOR...TOM GREEN.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...CROCKETT...
FISHER...HASKELL...IRION...JONES...MCCULLOCH...NOLAN...RUNNELS...
SAN SABA...SHACKELFORD...STERLING...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON...TOM
GREEN.

&&

21/20

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1216 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 PM     WILDFIRE         10 NW GRAPE CREEK       31.68N 100.67W
06/20/2011  E1250 ACRE       TOM GREEN          TX   FOREST SERVICE

            THE WILSON RANCH FIRE IS BURNING APPROXIMATELY 10 MILES
            NORTHWEST OF GRAPE CREEK. THE FIRE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 50
            PERCENT CONTAINED AND APPROXIMATELY 1250 ACRES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1100210

SN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
458 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

TXZ099-202230-
THROCKMORTON TX-
458 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
THROCKMORTON COUNTY...

AT 455 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OVER NORTH CENTRAL THROCKMORTON
COUNTY...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTH OF THROCKMORTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF...
  NORTHEASTERN THROCKMORTON COUNTY.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

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