Lake Wind Advisory 22, NWS Shreveport, LA

Bienville Parish, LA, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Caldwell Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, Grant Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, LaSalle Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Natchitoches Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Sabine Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Winn Parish, LA, Angelina County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Panola County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Sabine County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Smith County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Wood County, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
317 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER VOLATILE DAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING.

07Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT OUR STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS TO NORTHWEST OF
TYLER TO NEAR KILLEEN TEXAS. THIS BOUNDARY HAS JUST ABOUT MADE AS
MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD AS ITS GOING TO MAKE TODAY. IN FACT...THE
BOUNDARY MAY CREEP BACK NORTH AND WEST A BIT TODAY AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RELOADS THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER
INTERESTING FEATURE IS A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
JUST NORTH OF CAMDEN AND HOPE ARKANSAS...ONTO NEAR TEXARKANA AND
MINEOLA TEXAS. NEW CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FAVORABLE BOUNDARY FOR NEW CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EXTREME
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA SOUTH AND WEST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FEED ON A STRONG
INSTABILITY AXIS TO OUR SOUTH.

CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AIRMASS RECOVERY
WHICH THE MODELS SUGGEST WILL BE NO PROBLEM AND GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...WE FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL VORTMAX EVIDENT ON WATERVAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
HELPING TO KEEP THE TROUGH WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED ORIENTATION. AS
THIS TRANSPIRES...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY THIS MORNING AND MOVE
QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PSEUDO WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING ALONG THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE EJECTING SFC LOW AND A TRAILING DRYLINE/COLD FRONT MERGER
QUICKLY SWEEPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP MUCH OF OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS PSEUDO WARM
FRONT ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THIS AREA RESIDING IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF A 110KT UPPER
LEVEL JET. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS WITNESSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ON MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED
6 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS...WE WILL EXTEND AND EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...RUNNING IT THROUGH 12Z WED.

THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION IS UNDER A MODERATE RISK ONCE
AGAIN TODAY AND IF THE AIRMASS CAN RECOVER AS QUICKLY AS THE
SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST...THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FORECAST IS MORE THAN DOUBLE WHAT
WE EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY WITH HIGH 0-1KM AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES ONCE
AGAIN WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG AND 700-500MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 DEG C/KM. AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH RISK FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF OUR REGION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE PER SPC DAY ONE
OUTLOOK GIVEN THESE EXTREME PARAMETERS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONG ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN TODAY BUT
THE BEST MIXING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKE IT WILL OCCUR UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON SO FOR THAT REASON...WILL GO WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION...BEGINNING IT AT 18Z
AND RUNNING IT THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY TAKING
THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE EXTREME WEATHER BEFORE THINGS
BEGIN TO RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. TIMING AND THE DEGREE
OF AMPLITUDE WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH IS STILL A PROBLEM WITH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS BUT A SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. BEEFED POPS UP JUST A
LITTLE FOR THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST ON THE WRN FRINGES OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
BEFORE NOON. SOME ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KLFK. GUSTY SLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG
THE COLD FRONT BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF TSTM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  69  79  53  79 /  50  60  50  10   0
MLU  87  70  81  52  75 /  50  60  50  10   0
DEQ  75  56  70  43  76 /  80  80  50  10   0
TXK  78  66  74  49  77 /  80  80  50  10   0
ELD  83  66  75  47  77 /  80  80  50  10   0
TYR  85  65  75  52  78 /  50  60  30  10   0
GGG  85  68  79  51  78 /  50  60  30  10   0
LFK  89  69  82  53  82 /  30  50  30  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

13/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-261100-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-
CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
1200 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS WELL AS NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR TORNADOES ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS HEIGHTENED
THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD
EASTWARD...ENCOMPASSING MORE OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. TRAINING OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL WITH A PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN THREAT...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY...PERHAPS INTO
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

LAZ010>014-017>022-TXZ149>153-165>167-261100-
DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1200 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...AND WILL
DEPEND UPON LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FURTHER NORTH. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...
THUS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
GREATER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
GREATER THREAT WILL AGAIN BE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH ACTIVATION MORE LIKELY NEEDED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE EL DORADO         33.20N 92.61W
04/25/2011                   UNION              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMBS BROKEN AND DOWN BY EMS STATION.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1134 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     HAIL             3 ESE EL DORADO         33.20N 92.61W
04/25/2011  E0.88 INCH       UNION              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1244 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARZ060-061-071-072-260645-
COLUMBIA-HEMPSTEAD-LAFAYETTE-NEVADA-
1244 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 145 AM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
     NEVADA...HEMPSTEAD...COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     BLUFF CITY...BODCAW...LEWISVILLE...ROSSTON AND WILLISVILLE...

AT 1239 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEWISVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
116 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

LAZ019-021-022-260715-
CALDWELL-LA SALLE-WINN-
116 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 AM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
PARISHES...

IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
     CALDWELL...WINN AND LA SALLE...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     CLARKS...COLUMBIA...GRAYSON...OLLA AND WINNFIELD...

AT 113 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF WINNFIELD...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
140 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMPTI                  31.90N 93.11W
04/25/2011                   NATCHITOCHES       LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO TREES DOWN IN CAMPTI NEAR KEYS GROCERY AND MESSICK
            ROAD. ALSO TREE ACROSS ROADWAY ON HWY 9 NEAR 71.

&&

25

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