Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTED PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY.  THIS INITIAL ROUND OF
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...SKIES HAD CLEARED OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN
KANSAS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
70S.  THIS WARMING...ALONG WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HAS
CREATED AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION.  MIXED LAYER CAPES
HAVE INCREASE TO OVER A 1000 J/KG WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.

A FIELD OF CUMULUS HAD DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION WHERE ITS THOUGHT
THAT A 2ND ROUND OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP.  THE H-TRIP MODEL
SUGGESTS INITIATION SOMEWHERE NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI STATE
LINE BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z.

THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS.  OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL BE JUST
SUFFICIENT TO ORGANIZE A FEW UPDRAFTS.  CAPE BELOW 3KM EXCEEDED 100
J/KG...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.  THERE ALSO COULD BE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS OR HALF DOLLARS. THE VEERING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WOULD MITIGATE LOW LEVEL HELICITIES NEEDED FOR
TORNADOES...THEREFORE...THIS EVENING'S ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR
A TORNADO RISK.

THIS CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...EVENTUALLY EXITING THE OZARKS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  A
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.  LOOK FOR LOWS IN
THE 40S BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STILL WARM INTO THE 70S.

A PRETTY NICE WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR EVERYONE.  THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BECOME HIGHLY ZONAL...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY COMMENCE
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IT COULD BE A FANTASTIC WEEKEND FOR A RIVER
FLOAT OR A LATE SEASON LAKE RUN...AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WARM INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

BY MONDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A STRONGER COLD FRONT
TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A COLDER
SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO BECOME MUCH COOLER.
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK COULD STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT
OF THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.  THERE ALSO COULD BE A CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THIS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION AT THE
AVIATION SITES WILL BE FROM 00Z TO 02Z THIS EVENING WITH DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY LATE EVENING.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
757 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-140100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
757 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
CONTINUED THROUGH THE EVENING...WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THIS EVENING. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING...A FEW STORMS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

 GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
 RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
 OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY...AND ACROSS CENTRAL
 MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS ON FRIDAY.

 THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AND MONDAY
 NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
736 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     HAIL             4 SE CLEVER             36.99N 93.42W
10/12/2011  E1.25 INCH       STONE              MO   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS HAIL BETWEEN QUARTER AND HALF DOLLAR
            SIZE...LASTED APPROXIMATELY 5-10 MINUTES.

&&

KURTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
804 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

MOZ090-130130-
GREENE MO-
804 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GREENE COUNTY UNTIL 830
PM CDT...

AT 801 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SACVILLE...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF BOLIVAR...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CAVE SPRINGS...EBENEZER...GLIDEWELL...
NORTHWESTERN SPRINGFIELD...SACVILLE AND WILLARD.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 70 AND 79 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3741 9351 3743 9347 3742 9335 3742 9331
      3730 9316 3719 9344
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 323DEG 14KT 3742 9344

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
811 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

MOZ069-080-081-130145-
CAMDEN MO-LACLEDE MO-DALLAS MO-
811 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DALLAS...
NORTHWESTERN LACLEDE AND SOUTHERN CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 806 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF MACKS CREEK...OR 14 MILES WEST
OF CAMDENTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRANCH...CAMDENTON...DECATURVILLE...
ELDRIDGE...LINN CREEK...MACKS CREEK...MONTREAL AND ROACH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE LAKE OF
THE OZARKS STATE PARK AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3802 9254 3788 9254 3777 9268 3790 9308
      3810 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 297DEG 21KT 3802 9296

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
820 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     HAIL             SPOKANE                 36.87N 93.30W
10/12/2011  E1.00 INCH       CHRISTIAN          MO   PUBLIC

&&

KURTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
822 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

MOZ066-078-130200-
CEDAR MO-VERNON MO-
822 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN VERNON AND NORTHWESTERN
CEDAR COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 821 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALKER...OR 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF NEVADA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE EL DORADO SPRINGS...MONTEVALLO...OLYMPIA
AND WALKER.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3799 9430 3787 9396 3771 9399 3767 9413
      3790 9437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 297DEG 23KT 3792 9428

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
839 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

MOZ067-068-079-130215-
HICKORY MO-POLK MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
839 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN POLK...SOUTHEASTERN
ST. CLAIR AND SOUTHWESTERN HICKORY COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 835 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VISTA...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF
STOCKTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE COLLINS...GERSTER...HUMANSVILLE...VISTA
AND WEAUBLEAU.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE TRUMAN
LAKE.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3794 9340 3772 9361 3774 9361 3775 9363
      3783 9363 3783 9371 3793 9380 3801 9373
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 301DEG 24KT 3792 9368

HATCH