Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
220 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL COULD BE IN
THE OFFERING. EXPECT ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER MOST
OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A MODERATE TO WEAK BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A RISK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA.

MORE NOTABLY...A POTENT SPEED MAX...VIEWED ON THE ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL RAPIDLY CROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND APPROACH THE OZARKS WITH TIME. THIS
SYSTEM...ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL BRING
THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT THIS POINT...DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER...A
FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST KEEPING THE AREA IN
A DRY PATTERN. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SCENARIO
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT SOMEWHAT
OVER THE WEEKEND...ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO REMAIN WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE OZARKS THROUGH MONDAY.

PER GFS...WE MAY SEE A SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST STATES AMPLIFIES AND FLOW BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHWARD FORM CANADA COULD CREATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT TUESDAY. THE ECMWF PORTRAYS A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN AND KEEPS THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE SUPPORT AND MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST. WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF
MODELS COME INTO PHASE ON THIS PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COLUCCI

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011/

FOR THE 11/1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NNE
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTMS. VFR CEILINGS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HIGH END MVFR AT TIMES WILL
OCCUR. ISOLATED VERY BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR AND EVEN IFR CATS ON A LOCALIZED BASIS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 00Z...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF VFR CONDITIONS. PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN KS.

DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121715-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1205 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

 LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK
 LIMITED HAIL RISK
 LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. OCCASIONAL CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD EXPECTED...HOWEVER...THERE
IS A LIMITED RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS EXPECTED.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

COLUCCI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
139 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

MOZ089-094-111915-
DADE MO-LAWRENCE MO-
139 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHEASTERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 136 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF MILLER...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF
MOUNT VERNON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3719 9393 3736 9380 3733 9369 3728 9362
      3709 9373
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 211DEG 16KT 3723 9377

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
224 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

MOZ101-112000-
MCDONALD MO-
224 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MCDONALD COUNTY UNTIL 300
PM CDT...

AT 221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LANAGAN...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PINEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ANDERSON...GOODMAN...LANAGAN AND
PINEVILLE.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3675 9452 3675 9429 3652 9441 3660 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 208DEG 11KT 3664 9446

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
514 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

MOZ102-112245-
BARRY MO-
514 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BARRY COUNTY UNTIL 545
PM CDT...

AT 512 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF BUTTERFIELD...OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CASSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3693 9391 3692 9365 3680 9361 3665 9396
      3676 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 222DEG 12KT 3675 9397

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
539 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

MOZ102-112315-
BARRY MO-
539 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BARRY COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

AT 537 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CASSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. THIS ADVISORY IS A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR BARRY COUNTY.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3668 9392 3693 9387 3692 9362 3690 9361
      3682 9361 3682 9358 3672 9358 3658 9380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 214DEG 18KT 3670 9382

HATCH