Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
200 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 115 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011/

A VEERED...MORE WESTERLY SFC WIND AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHERN MO HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR TO ADVECT A BIT DEEPER INTO
THE MO OZARKS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS ALSO ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH UP TO NEAR 100 OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA BY 1 PM. RECORD HIGHS AT KJLN (103...1954) AND KSGF
(100...1933) WILL BE PUSHED TODAY. SOME ISOLATED PULSE TYPE
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH-EAST OF KSGF WHERE A BIT MORE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. WATER VAPOR METSAT IMAGERY
SHOWS BETTER UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TODAY...SO
UPDRAFTS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO BE SUSTAINED VERSUS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. VERY WEAK/NIL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT A
SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT...BUT DOWNBURST WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM NORTHERN IL TO CNTRL KS WILL
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWFA LATER TODAY THEN TO THE
I-44 CORRIDOR BU 06Z. ATTM...MAIN AXIS OF SFC CONVERGENCE IS OVER
NORTHERN MO/NORTHEAST KS SO WILL WATCH HOW FAR THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE
DROPS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. BY 06Z...ONLY A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE
IS DEPICTED BY THE GFS. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN CWFA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF
THE SFC FRONT MAY SUPPORT A STORM CLUSTER OR MCS OVER EASTERN
NEB/WESTERN IA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POTENTIALLY SOME
WEAKER CONVECTION WITH THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT
WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO MO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

THE WEAK FROPA AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER
FOR SUNDAY AND THE PLAN IS TO EXPIRE THE HEAT ADVISORY AS PLANNED
AT 7 PM. WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO A GFS AND NAM MOS CONSENSUS IN THE
NEAR TERM THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FCST PICTURE IS A LITTLE MUDDLED. CLOUD
COVER AND CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO A
POTENTIALLY DIFFICULT FCST. AGAIN...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES AND WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND NOCTURNALLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DRIVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. GENERAL ASCENT WILL BE AIDED BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ESE AROUND THE RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND LOWER MO/MID MS RIVER VLYS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN
MORE ABUNDANT CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF SOME DIURNAL SHRA/TSTM MONDAY.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER N-NW MID LEVEL FLOW. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FROPA WILL BE POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE FRONT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION THU-FRI. THE WED-WED NIGHT PERIOD IS
THE EASIEST TO KEY ON FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM CHANCES IN LATER
PERIODS. BEYOND THAT...BETTER CHANCES IN GENERAL MAY BE
NOCTURNAL...BUT VERY HARD TO PINPOINT.

DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800Z TAFS: UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE LOCAL AREA WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AIRFIELDS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>095-101>104.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1220 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-031730-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1220 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 ELEVATED RISK FOR EXTREME HEAT.
 LIMITED RISK FOR LIGHTNING.
 ELEVATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
 ELEVATED RISK FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND.

DISCUSSION...

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S...
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 100 AND 107.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT.
STRONG INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEAD TO STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE
MAIN POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
IN GENERAL THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LIMITED...BUT WILL BE
LOCALLY ELEVATED NEAR THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONT EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THROUGH
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...SPOTTERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS
FOR POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ACTIVATION OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
201 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

MOZ082-097-021930-
HOWELL MO-TEXAS MO-
201 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL HOWELL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 157 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLEAR SPRINGS...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WILLOW SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DOWNBURST WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
HOWELL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3706 9172 3699 9197 3714 9203 3721 9182
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 336DEG 5KT 3709 9188

HATCH