Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
920 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...UPDATE.

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
AREAS OF MISSOURI ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM JOPLIN TO
VERSAILLES.

THE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE WATCH AREA REMAINS MODEST TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES DOWN TO AROUND 1500 J/KG.  OVERALL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS HIGH FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH 40 TO 50
KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.  THIS CAPE - SHEAR COMBINATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO KEEP STORMS ORGANIZED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS THEY
APPROACH THE OSAGE PLAINS OF WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

WITH THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL CAPE...ALONG WITH MIXED LAYER CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION VALUES OF 250 TO 300 J/KG...THE TORNADO RISK REMAINS VERY
LOW.  THE SPRINGFIELD 00Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS A LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ULTIMATELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE CAP AND THE LACK OF LOW
LEVEL CAPE.  THIS WILL MITIGATE THE RISK FOR TORNADOES TO A CERTAIN
EXTENT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
FORCING THIS LINE OF STORMS...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A LIMITED
RISK FOR A BRIEF SPIN UP SOMEWHERE.

DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.

CRAMER

.DISCUSSION...

THIS WEEK LOOKS BUSY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE OZARKS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS INCREASING
STARTING WITH LATER THIS EVENING. A FAIRLY STRONG AND POTENT UPPER
LEVEL WAVE IS NOW KICKING OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO WESTERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHARP DRYLINE HAS SETUP JUST WEST OF HERE
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND A DECENT SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF
WICHITA CURRENTLY.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP AROUND 750 MB BUT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECTING HEIGHTS TO
FALL AND COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS CAP
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. FORECAST PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
2000 AND 3000 J/KG...0 TO 3 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KNOTS...AND 0
TO 3 KM HELICITY VALUES AROUND 300 TO 400. THIS WILL BE AMBLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT MODES ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. WILL BE EXPECTING
SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS INITIALLY WEST OF THE AREA
MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA TRANSITIONING INTO MORE LINEAR COMPLEX
OR LINE SEGMENTS AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP INTO THE MIDWEST TOMORROW
AND SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE OZARKS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND LATE EVENING ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY BUT WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS EARLY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE OZARKS. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60 WHICH IS VERY REFRESHING FOR
LATE JUNE.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING THE OZARKS MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS OR POTENTIAL MCS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL MCS IS HARD TO PINPOINT DOWN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE
BUT THE SIGNALS DO POINT TO AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
OZARKS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR BY THE WEEKEND.

GRIFFIN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 715 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011/

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
BULK OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR. HAVE
CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP...AND WILL UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS EVOLVE THIS EVENING. AFTER THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS
CLEARS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...WHICH WILL MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT SGF/BBG. HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH VCTS AT THIS
TIME.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
853 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-220030-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
853 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
LIMITED TORNADO RISK.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 65 MPH...LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THERE IS ALSO A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A TORNADO OR TWO...PRIMARILY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE HIGHWAY 71 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA TUESDAY AS A
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE
  FROM JOPLIN TO VERSAILLES.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1043 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

KSZ097-210445-
CRAWFORD KS-
1043 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL 1145 PM
CDT...

AT 1040 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF
HEPLER TO 13 MILES WEST OF MCCUNE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ARMA...BEULAH...BRAZILTON...CHEROKEE...
ENGLEVALE...FARLINGTON...FRANKLIN...GIRARD...GREENBUSH...HEPLER...
LONE OAK...MCCUNE...POLK AND RINGO.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3767 9508 3767 9462 3734 9479 3734 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 249DEG 37KT 3765 9505 3738 9521

GAGAN