Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
509 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES VARIED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MIDDLE
60S WERE OBSERVED IN THE EASTERN OZARKS...WHILE MIDDLE 70S WERE
COMMON OVER THE OSAGE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI.  THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO A WARM
FRONT THAT WAS POSITIONED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OZARKS.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS SUPPOSE TO BE ONGOING AT
THE MOMENT...BUT ITS NOT.  AS A MATTER OF FACT...OTHER THAN THE
KANSAS WIND MILLS SHOWING UP ON TOP OF THE FLINT HILLS...THE
REGIONAL COMPOSITE DOESN'T SHOW A SINGLE ECHO AS OF 230 AM.

AREA PROFILERS IS SHOWING INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.  AS THIS LOW LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SURFACE FRONT OVER EASTERN KANSAS...ITS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION WILL INITIATE IN THIS AREA...AND DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS REGION.  AT LEAST THIS IS WHAT THE H-TRIP
IS SHOWING...ALONG WITH THE RUC 13.  THEREFORE...OUR FIRST PERIOD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT UPON WHAT HAPPENS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.  WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RADAR IN THIS AREA...AND MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL TODAY'S
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL WARM INTO THE 90S...WHILE AREAS ALONG OR NORTH OF THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN COOLER.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT.  MODELS HAVE THIS COMPLEX DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND THEN PEELING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.  THEREFORE WE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH 30
TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES GOING OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.  THE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
INTERACT WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ASSUMES A NORTHWEST FLOW STRUCTURE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK.  THIS SET UP WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  ONE SIGNAL IN PARTICULAR SHOWS UP
STRONG FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY
DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE STARTS TO NOSE
BACK INTO THE OZARKS...PUSHING THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WELL INTO THE IOWA
AND NEBRASKA CORNBELT.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A HOT...HUMID...AND DRY
WEEKEND AHEAD.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 502 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011/

FOR THE 13/1200Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...CONVECTION FINALLY STARTING
TO IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
OVER NORTHERN MO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AS
WELL INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MO WITH INCREASED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS THE 850MB FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER SOMEWHAT. WILL WATCH
TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW IN THE NEAR TERM.
OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE TAFS VFR OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING MVFR
FOG IN SOME AREAS. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
534 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
534 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AREAS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
  THIS MORNING.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
  HAZARDS WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WITHIN THE CLUSTER. FREQUENT
  CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE COMMON WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM
  TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
628 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

MOZ058-131215-
MARIES MO-
628 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARIES COUNTY UNTIL
715 AM CDT...

AT 623 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BELLE...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF LINN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BELLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3829 9163 3809 9163 3806 9167 3821 9188
      3829 9186 3830 9186 3830 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1126Z 280DEG 17KT 3829 9174

DSA