Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS
MORNING...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE STORMS FOR SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

STRONG TO BORDERLINE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING ARE TAPPING INTO A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH
CONTINUING STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. RATHER
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...NEARLY
COINCIDENT WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUST TO 40MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY MODE FOR THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...STORMS ARE WELL INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEARLY ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. WOULD EXPECT THE STRONGEST STORMS TO DEVELOP MORE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A RESULT. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING. DID NOTE THE GOOD PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORMS. MAY BE INDICATIONS OF A DEVELOPING
MESO-LOW BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA.

FOR TODAY...CONTINUING STRONG MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM
THE GULF REGION WILL KEEP THE REGION RATHER WARM FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGHS SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE REGION SAW IN VICHY/ROLLA AND JOPLIN FRIDAY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20 TO 22 DEGREE RANGE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND TAKE AIM AT THE REGION. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST ACROSS KANSAS. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...A DRY LINE
WILL WORK TO KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY
STORM INITIATION ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH 65 TO 80 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE COMBINATION OF AN ABUNDANTLY MOIST
AIR...A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...A DRY LINE/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION AND MORE THAN SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND GOOD
THETA-E DIFFERENTIAL AROUND 20K...WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...THOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANT HIGH
WINDS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM DEVELOPMENT WHEN DISCREET
CELLS WOULD BE MOST PREVALENT. THOUGH THE INITIAL MODE MAY BE
DISCREET CELLS...THINK THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A
STRONGLY FORCED LINE QUICKLY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM ON SUNDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING
A RETURN OF SUNNY SKIES AND MORE MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK. A COOLER SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S LIKELY
FOR HIGHS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN STATES AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH MODELS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH TODAY THAN THEY HAD BEEN
THE LAST FEW RUNS.

HATCH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2011/

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVERNIGHT. TO THIS POINT...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF KS. THIS HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST HOUR
OR SO AS REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES AN EXPANSION AND EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF SHRA/TSRA WNW OF KJLN. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ACTIVITY EXPAND INTO JLN/SGF AERODROMES OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPOS TO COVER THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF BBG AND CONTINUE TO COVER THE
LOWER RISK OF TSRA THERE WITH CB WORDING. SHRA/TSRA WILL
PROGRESSIVELY EXIT TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK LEADING TO A CLEARING
SKY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
132 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

MOZ077-088-090700-
JASPER MO-BARTON MO-
132 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BARTON AND NORTHERN JASPER COUNTIES
UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 130 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MILFORD TO BOSTON TO
3 MILES NORTHEAST OF ASBURY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ASBURY...BOSTON...CARYTOWN...DUDENVILLE...
GOLDEN CITY...IANTHA...IRWIN...JASPER...KENOMA...LAMAR HEIGHTS...
LAMAR...MILFORD...MINDENMINES...NASHVILLE...OAKTON AND VERDELLA.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3747 9461 3765 9439 3763 9408 3729 9409
      3729 9408 3725 9418 3727 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0633Z 265DEG 32KT 3755 9413 3738 9423
          3730 9452

SCHAUMANN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
335 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

MOZ095-103-104-090915-
STONE MO-CHRISTIAN MO-TANEY MO-
335 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CHRISTIAN...NORTHERN STONE AND
NORTHERN TANEY COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 329 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF
BILLINGS TO CRANE TO 11 MILES WEST OF CAPE FAIR...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BILLINGS...BRANSON WEST...CLEVER...
CRANE...GALENA...HIGHLANDVILLE...MERRIAM WOODS...NIXA...
OZARK...REEDS SPRING...ROCKAWAY BEACH...SPARTA AND TANEYVILLE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT INCLUDE TABLE ROCK
LAKE.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3669 9358 3682 9359 3683 9363 3709 9361
      3709 9298 3708 9292 3669 9291
TIME...MOT...LOC 0834Z 259DEG 34KT 3706 9355 3690 9355
          3677 9365

SCHAUMANN