Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Springfield, MO

742 
WWUS53 KSGF 280516
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

MOC077-280526-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110228T0545Z/
GREENE MO-
1116 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GREENE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WERE NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CST MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3710 9361 3728 9361 3728 9363 3742 9363
      3741 9307 3709 9307 3709 9315
TIME...MOT...LOC 0516Z 261DEG 54KT 3741 9340 3731 9335
          3716 9340

$$

SCHAUMANN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 519 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011/

THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FIRST
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE THE HRRR IS INSISTENT ON
BREAKING OUT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE QUITE A CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. THERE
IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THAT MAY ACT TO WEAKEN THE CAP ACROSS THIS REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND LIFT OVER THE COMPLEX
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO GET GOING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE HAVE
RECENTLY HAD ONE CELL TRY AND FIRE ACROSS BOONE COUNTY
ARKANSAS...BUT THE CAP WON THAT BATTLE.

A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE FROM OKLAHOMA CITY TO
AROUND WAURIKA OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALSO CORRESPONDS
NICELY TO AN AREA OF TOWERING CUMULUS. AS THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE
SHIFTS EAST WITH THAT LEAD IMPULSE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
CAP TO BE BROKEN AROUND THE INDIAN NATION TURNPIKE IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

IF STORMS CAN GO IN EITHER PLACE...THE LACK OF STRONG LINEAR FORCING
COMBINED WITH AMBIENT SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE.

LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE MAIN DRY
LINE AND TRIPLE POINT REGION WILL MOVE OUT TOWARDS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE FEATURES...POSING YET ANOTHER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. DISCRETE
CELLS ARE AGAIN FAVORED...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE TRIPLE POINT
WHERE EFFECTIVE CLOUD LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL HAVE A STRONG NORMAL
COMPONENT TO THE DRY LINE. BY ABOUT 06Z...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE SOUTH SUGGESTING ANY ONGOING CONVECTION WOULD
TRANSITION TO A LINEAR OR QLCS MODE.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...FORECAST REMAINS COMPLEX. THE
FIRST OF A FEW UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN LAUNCHED TO
ASSESS THE CURRENT CAP STRENGTH.

WARM FRONT HAS CLEARED CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ROUGHLY EXTENDS FROM
JUST EAST OF WICHITA KS TO CLINTON MO AND NEAR ST. LOUIS. AS
EXPECTED CONVECTION IS FIRING IN KANSAS AS A LEAD IMPULSE ENTERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TO THIS POINT CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS LEAD WAVE IS AFFECTING THE WARM
SECTOR AS WELL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME THINNING OF
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SW MO...E OK AND MUCH OF ARK. LAPS INDICATES
THAT SURFACE BASED CIN IS WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL BE AWAITING CONFIRMATION FROM THE 21Z
RAOB AND WATCHING RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY. STILL THINKING THAT THE
TWO AREAS TO WATCH IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR THE WARM FRONT
AND FROM CENTRAL ARK TO THE NORTHEAST. BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A
WARY EYE ON THE CAP OVER E OK.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SEVERE RISKS REMAIN CONDITIONAL BASED ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND WHETHER OR NOT THE DRY LINE MAKES IT
INTO THE AREA PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATING AND TAKING IT
OVER. TRENDS FROM THE RUC AND HRRR SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT
SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STOUT WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 60KT AND
0-1KM SHEAR OF 40KT. EXPECTATIONS FOR INSTABILITY HAVE NOT CHANGED
WITH MLCAPE IN THE 750 TO 1250 J/KG RANGE. WILL BE CLOSELY
WATCHING E OK FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WE WOULD BE ON THE
RECEIVING END OF STORMS THAT INITIATE IN THAT REGION. SUBSEQUENT
SOUNDINGS AT 00Z AND 03Z WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
CAP STRENGTH AND IF INCOMING LARGE SCALE LIFT IS EFFECTIVELY
REMOVING THE CAP. HIGHEST CONCERN WILL BE FOR ANY SUPERCELLS THAT
FIRE ALONG THE DRY LINE. SHEAR AND STORM MOTION VECTORS CUT ACROSS
THE DRY LINE...WHICH INDICATES THAT THESE CELLS COULD MOVE OFF THE
DRY LINE AND POSE AN INCREASED RISK FOR TORNADOES. THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IS MOST PRONE TO THIS RISK.
AGAIN...THIS RISK IS CONDITIONAL ON BREAKING THE CAP AND ASSUMING
THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT TAKE OVER THE DRY LINE TOO SOON. THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DRY LINE TO BE IN PLAY IS THIS
EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...
SFC LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO ILLINOIS AND THIS WILL ACCELERATE THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE
COLD FRONT...ENDING THE RISK FOR SEVERE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY...STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT EAST WITH LINGERING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.
STRATUS FIELD BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD THIN A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH
PROSPECTS OF SOME SOLAR INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO A MODEST REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE MID 40S.

STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ONLY KNOCK DOWN
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS PASSAGE.

A QUIET DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AT THE SAME TIME A COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS REGION. THIS SPELLS A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE OZARKS. THE
RAIN WILL END BY LATE SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GRIFFIN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...CURRENTLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR STATUS DECK ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE AREA. A WARM FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA
IS NOW STALLED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW OF THIS STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS
ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1032 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-010445-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1032 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

 THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A
 COLD FRONT THAT WAS GENERALLY LOCATED FROM JOPLIN TO ROLLA AT
 1030 PM THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO LINE OUT AS
 THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THEM...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
 LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. THERE WILL REMAIN A WIND
 AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN ALONG
 OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
 HOURS...GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE MAIN THREAT FOR
 SEVERE STORMS WILL QUICKLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
 OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT ENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
 MISSOURI BY 4 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING SOUTH
 OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR AND MAYBE NEEDED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
 SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WFO SGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1021 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     HALF WAY                37.62N 93.24W
02/27/2011                   POLK               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED AT 490TH ROAD AT 178TH
            ROAD.

&&

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1022 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 PM     HAIL             BUFFALO                 37.64N 93.09W
02/27/2011  M2.75 INCH       DALLAS             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED BASEBALL SIZED HAIL.

&&

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1025 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HAIL             3 E BUFFALO             37.64N 93.04W
02/27/2011  M1.25 INCH       DALLAS             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1044 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 PM     HAIL             BOLIVAR                 37.61N 93.41W
02/27/2011  M1.00 INCH       POLK               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ALSO MEASURED 40 KT WIND GUST.

&&

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1045 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 PM     HAIL             LONG LANE               37.61N 92.91W
02/27/2011  M0.75 INCH       DALLAS             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1051 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 PM     HAIL             BUFFALO                 37.64N 93.09W
02/27/2011  M0.75 INCH       DALLAS             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KURTZ