Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Springfield, MO

266 
WWUS53 KSGF 192138
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
438 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

MOC209-192147-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-110419T2215Z/
STONE MO-
438 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL STONE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF 
STONE COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 9331 3689 9334 3709 9309 3709 9307
      3711 9306 3722 9290 3713 9268 3676 9277
      3676 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 239DEG 45KT 3687 9321

$$

MOC043-067-213-225-192215-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-110419T2215Z/
CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-TANEY MO-WEBSTER MO-
438 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN WEBSTER...NORTHERN TANEY...WESTERN DOUGLAS AND EASTERN
CHRISTIAN COUNTIES...

AT 434 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHESTNUTRIDGE...OR 6 MILES SOUTH
OF HIGHLANDVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRADLEYVILLE...BROWNBRANCH...BRUNER...
CHADWICK...CHESTNUTRIDGE...CHRISTIAN CENTER...DIGGINS...DOGWOOD...
ELKHEAD...FORDLAND...GARRISON...GOODHOPE...HIGHLANDVILLE...KELTNER...
LINDEN...OLDFIELD...ROME...SELMORE...SEYMOUR...SPARTA AND SPOKANE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 9331 3689 9334 3709 9309 3709 9307
      3711 9306 3722 9290 3713 9268 3676 9277
      3676 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 239DEG 45KT 3687 9321
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

HATCH

214 
WWUS53 KSGF 192154
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
454 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

MOC213-192204-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-110419T2215Z/
TANEY MO-
454 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN TANEY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF 
TANEY COUNTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 9321 3690 9322 3705 9304 3712 9293
      3713 9269 3681 9276
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 242DEG 31KT 3692 9303

$$

MOC043-067-225-192215-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-110419T2215Z/
CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-WEBSTER MO-
454 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER...WESTERN DOUGLAS AND EASTERN CHRISTIAN
COUNTIES...

AT 453 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHADWICK...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF OZARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRUNER...CHADWICK...CHRISTIAN CENTER...
DOGWOOD...ELKHEAD...GARRISON...GOODHOPE...KELTNER...OLDFIELD...ROME
AND SPARTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 9321 3690 9322 3705 9304 3712 9293
      3713 9269 3681 9276
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 242DEG 31KT 3692 9303
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

HATCH

997 
WWUS53 KSGF 192213
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
513 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

MOC043-067-225-192223-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-110419T2215Z/
CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-WEBSTER MO-
513 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER...WESTERN
DOUGLAS AND EASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER
SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3682 9321 3690 9322 3705 9304 3712 9293
      3713 9269 3681 9276
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 242DEG 31KT 3700 9285

$$

HATCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER AN
EPISODE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.

THE 18Z SPECIAL RAOB FROM SPRINGFIELD SUGGESTED THAT A STOUT CAP
REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  AS A MATTER OF
FACT...MIXED LAYER INHIBITION WAS MEASURED AT 152 J/KG.  THIS IS WHY
UPDRAFTS ALONG THE FRONT SAMPLED BY RADAR CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE
THROUGH 230 PM.

EVENTUALLY DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP...AND IMPACT AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65.  LARGE CAPE WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SHOWS A RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.  MEANWHILE...A THETA E
DIFFERENTIAL OF AROUND 30 DEGREES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INVERTED
V STRUCTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...WOULD YIELD A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED...AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE
ALREADY VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST.  ALSO...ZERO CAPE BELOW 3 KM WAS
MEASURED FROM THE 18Z RAOB...WHICH WOULD ALSO HAVE A MITIGATION
EFFECT ON STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOES.  GIVEN THE OVERALL STRONG
SHEAR/CAPE COMBINATION WITHIN THE OZARKS AIRMASS...THE TORNADO RISK
IS NOT ZERO...AS A COUPLE OF SPIN UPS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN AREAS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI LATER THIS EVENING.

STORMS WILL COMPLETELY EXIT THE OZARKS REGION BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.  TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND BY FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S.  WEDNESDAY IS ALSO A DAY THAT WE CAN PINPOINT A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST.  OTHERWISE A STORMY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSOURI FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE NEAR STORM
ENVIRONMENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THESE PERIODS AS THE
AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES...HELPING TO
ORGANIZE ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES.

ULTIMATELY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE 7 DAY FORECAST.  THIS WILL PROVIDE ON AND
OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  EVENTUALLY SOIL
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME EITHER SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL VEER QUICKLY
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FROPA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH KSGF/KBBG. POST FRONTAL
CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CAT AS LOW LEVELS COOL WITH SOME
BRIEF IFR CEILING POTENTIAL DURING THE 20/06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...TORNADO WATCH.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1258 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT

 WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

 HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST RISK IS ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT.
 TORNADO RISK IS LIMITED TO ELEVATED.
 LIGHTNING RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.
 NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK IS LIMITED.

  DISCUSSION...

 AN EPISODE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MAJORITY
 OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
 HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
 WITH THESE STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED
 OUT. STORMS ARE FORECASTED TO EXIT THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT
 TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

 AN UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM
 THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MULTIPLE ROUNDS
 OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A RISK OF A FEW
 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IN
 ADDITION...INCREASINGLY SATURATED SOILS WILL RESULT IN AN
 INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA
 RIVERS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED EAST OF A LINE FROM WARSAW
 TO NEOSHO MISSOURI THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 AM     HAIL             WARSAW                  38.24N 93.38W
04/19/2011  M0.50 INCH       BENTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BENTON COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS DIME SIZE HAIL.

0240 AM     HAIL             2 SE LAURIE             38.18N 92.80W
04/19/2011  E1.00 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CAMDEN COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON LAKE
            ROAD 530.

0240 AM     HAIL             2 NNE LAURIE            38.23N 92.82W
04/19/2011  E1.00 INCH       MORGAN             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KY3 RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL BETWEEN
            LAURIE AND GRAVOIS MILLS

0255 AM     HAIL             5 N OSAGE BEACH         38.23N 92.62W
04/19/2011  E0.88 INCH       MILLER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED NICKEL SIZED HAIL NORTH OF THE
            LAKE OF THE OZARKS.

0300 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE ELDON             38.31N 92.50W
04/19/2011                   MILLER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED LARGE TREE DOWN OVER HIGHWAY M
            EAST OF ELDON.

0300 AM     HAIL             4 NNE TUSCUMBIA         38.29N 92.44W
04/19/2011  E0.50 INCH       MILLER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ELDON EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL NORTH
            OF SALINE VALLEY CONSERVATION AREA ALONG HIGHWAY M.

0332 AM     HAIL             VIENNA                  38.19N 91.95W
04/19/2011  E0.88 INCH       MARIES             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MARIES COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

0340 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE VICHY             38.18N 91.72W
04/19/2011                   MARIES             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED LARGE TREE OVER COUNTY ROAD 419
            NEAR JUNCTION WITH STATE HIGHWAY Z.

0450 AM     HAIL             SE VICHY                38.11N 91.76W
04/19/2011  E1.00 INCH       MARIES             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ESTIMATED NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED
            HAIL SOUTHEAST OF THE ROLLA NATIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

JTK