Severe Thunderstorm Warning 464, NWS Springfield, MO

267 
WWUS53 KSGF 122336
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
636 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

MOC149-130015-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0464.000000T0000Z-110813T0015Z/
OREGON MO-
636 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON COUNTY...

AT 632 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF MYRTLE...OR 15 MILES
EAST OF THAYER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN SPRINGFIELD.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 9113 3650 9166 3683 9122 3683 9112
      3682 9111 3650 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 273DEG 28KT 3658 9123
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

GRIFFIN

436 
WWUS53 KSGF 130005
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
705 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

MOC149-130015-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0464.000000T0000Z-110813T0015Z/
OREGON MO-
705 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN OREGON COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 715 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING IS EXITING THE WARNED AREA...
THUS THE WARNING IS BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3649 9113 3650 9166 3683 9122 3683 9112
      3682 9111 3650 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 273DEG 28KT 3656 9096

$$

GRIFFIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...

PRIOR TO STORMS MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...FANTASTIC CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SPECIAL UPPER AIR OBSERVATION WAS PERFORMED AT 18Z TODAY TO ASSESS
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  THIS SOUNDING REVEALED
THAT THE INSTABILITY - SHEAR COMBINATION IS NOT LIKELY SUFFICIENT
FOR A HIGH FREQUENCY OF SEVERE WEATHER.  AS A MATTER OF FACT...MOST
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AS
MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ONLY MEASURED 576 J/KG.

DESPITE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING DECENT FOR THE TIME OF YEAR (30 TO 35
KNOTS)...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WAS RATHER WEAK...WHICH WOULD TEND TO
MITIGATE THE RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  MEANWHILE
THE LACK OF CAPE WOULD MITIGATE THE STRENGTH OF
UPDRAFTS...ULTIMATELY LOWERING THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. IT'S NOT OUT
OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT AGAIN...A HIGH
FREQUENCY OF SEVERE STORMS IS NOT LIKELY.

WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT STILL POSITIONED ACROSS THE KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA BORDER...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.
WITH THE CONTINUED LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS SEEMS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.  STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR DRY WEATHER.

THIS DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DRY / STABLE AIRMASS THAT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD...HELPING TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON A
DAILY BASIS THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER NORTHERN TEXAS.  THIS SLIGHT PATTERN
SHIFT WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE OZARKS...MOST
LIKELY 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES CAN NOT
NECESSARILY BE RULED OUT EITHER...SINCE WE'LL BE POSITIONED
UNDERNEATH THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUMMERTIME HIGH CENTER.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800Z TAFS:

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
AIRFIELDS THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERIODS
OF MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND CEILINGS DURING POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS
EARLY TOMORROW.

WITH A WARM...HUMID AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED TO BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
GIVEN THAT THE MORE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA CLOSER TO OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...INCLUDED THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST CONCENTRATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND THAT
TIME. AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AS A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE SLOWLY FROM MID MORNING ON
TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT.

COLUCCI

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
355 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-132100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
355 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

 LIMITED HAIL RISK.
 LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
 LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
 SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE INTENSITY.
 HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR
 TWO COULD DEVELOP...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
 THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

 STORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
 CENTRAL MISSOURI. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH
 MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE
 TO UPPER 90S IS EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
 THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER