Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Springfield, MO

798 
WWUS53 KSGF 150243
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
943 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

MOC011-057-097-109-150315-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-110415T0315Z/
LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-DADE MO-BARTON MO-
943 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BARTON...WESTERN DADE...EASTERN JASPER AND
NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

AT 939 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF KENOMA TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF MEINERT TO AVILLA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AVILLA...BOSTON...CARTHAGE...CARYTOWN...
DUDENVILLE...FIDELITY...GOLDEN CITY...GREENFIELD...JASPER...KENOMA...
LOCKWOOD...MAPLE GROVE...MEINERT...PENNSBORO...RED OAK...REEDS...
SOUTH GREENFIELD AND SYLVANIA.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE STOCKTON LAKE. INTERSTATE 44
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 16 AND 21 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...IF
YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 9435 3743 9431 3759 9403 3758 9400
      3744 9377 3724 9377
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 233DEG 31KT 3749 9408 3740 9399
          3723 9405
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

SCHAUMANN

317 
WWUS53 KSGF 150256
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
956 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

MOC011-057-097-109-150307-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-110415T0315Z/
LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-DADE MO-BARTON MO-
956 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BARTON...WESTERN
DADE...EASTERN JASPER AND NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WERE NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3705 9435 3743 9431 3759 9403 3758 9400
      3744 9377 3724 9377
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 233DEG 31KT 3756 9396 3747 9387
          3730 9393

$$

SCHAUMANN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
820 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 810 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011/

STORMS ARE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY BEING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THEY PUSH INTO THE AREA. A FEW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE BEFORE THEY WEAKEN IN THE AREA OF
LESS INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND THE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS A TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING.

WITH THE STORMS MOVING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR TRAINING OF STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING.

LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPREAD OVER THE AREA. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO HELPING TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE INSTABILITY INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH THE STRONGEST OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING...BUT
WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE STORMS
REMAINING MORE DISCRETE. WITH THE STRONG WIND SHEAR IN PLACE ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.

WISE

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. A DRY LINE EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH FROM THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH INTO NEBRASKA AND NOT AFFECT THE AREA.

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS UNDER WAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S INTO NORTHERN KANSAS...WITH LOW TO MID 60
DEWPOINTS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING
ACROSS OKLAHOMA WITH MLCAPES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE CAP IS
REALLY WEAKENING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. EXPECT RAPID STORM DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM. VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR AND
THE WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AS A
BROKEN LINE AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. THE STORM MOVEMENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE LINE MOVING TO THE
EAST.

INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO THE EAST INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY ACROSS
OKLAHOMA TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI OR ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A NEVADA TO
CASSVILLE LINE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM THIS EVENING WITH THE WIND
FIELDS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. ALL
STORM MODES WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IN
THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS POSSIBLE.

LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CAN DEVELOP WOULD EXPECT THE STORMS TO BECOME MORE LINEAR ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. DO NOT FEEL THE DRY LINE WILL PUSH EAST SLOW
ENOUGH THAT THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF IT. HOWEVER...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT SOME DISCRETE CELLS REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IF A LINE DOES DEVELOP...LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE A LINE OF STORMS REMAINING IN BALANCE
AND PUSHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ONCE THIS OCCURS THE STORM
MODE WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND RISK...HOWEVER
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
LINE AND WITH ANY STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AS STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IF A LINE DOES NOT DEVELOP...STORMS MAY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
AS THEY APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR...BUT COULD INTENSIFY AS
THEY PUSH INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTH INTO THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY TRAINING OF STORMS CAN OCCUR.

EXPECT THE STORMS TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL REMAIN A WIND THREAT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS
WILL OUTRUN THE DRY LINE...WITH THE DRY LINE SLOWLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE WATCH WHERE
THE DRY LINE LINE WILL BE LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG IT AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 63 FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER IT DEVELOPS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WRAP AROUND RAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WISE

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

ZONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MODELS
DEPICTING MANY CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME WHERE WE HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES
TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS TO THE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE KJLN SITES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD THEN
SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE KSGF AND KBBG TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR AND POSSIBILITY IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE
STORMS CEILINGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE. BESIDE THE
THUNDERSTORMS STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

CEILINGS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
912 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-160215-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
912 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THE
 REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND ACROSS ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
 OVERNIGHT. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MAINLY
 WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 THIS EVENING...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
 OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL AND
 DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN
 ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS FAR
 SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER
 OF THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
 MAY BECOME DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AS STORMS
 CONGEAL INTO A LINE. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
 REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS WIND SHEAR CONTINUES
 TO INCREASE.

  IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL
  WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
  THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
  MISSOURI FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
  STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF A ROLLA
  TO SALEM TO WINONA LINE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
  THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...SMALL HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
  STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

  NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
  FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
  AREA FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
 FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
531 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066-077-088-093-101-150030-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-VERNON-BARTON-JASPER-NEWTON-MCDONALD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...NEVADA...LAMAR...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...
NEOSHO...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE
531 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING TO THE EAST
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND A FEW CONFIRMED TORNADOES. THE
STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. IF THE STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST...LOCATIONS IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI COULD EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 8PM THIS EVENING.

AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND TORNADOES WILL ALL
BE POSSIBLE.

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
652 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

KSZ073-097-150015-
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-
652 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CRAWFORD AND SOUTHERN BOURBON
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 649 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GREENBUSH...OR 8 MILES WEST OF GIRARD...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3783 9508 3783 9462 3741 9462 3733 9494
      3734 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 206DEG 31KT 3756 9497

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
845 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     HAIL             4 W ANDERSON            36.65N 94.52W
04/14/2011  M1.00 INCH       MCDONALD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
859 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     HAIL             GOODMAN                 36.74N 94.40W
04/14/2011  M1.50 INCH       MCDONALD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
902 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 PM     HAIL             1 N ANDERSON            36.67N 94.44W
04/14/2011  M1.00 INCH       MCDONALD           MO   PUBLIC

&&

KARDELL