Severe Thunderstorm Warning 391, NWS Springfield, MO

069 
WWUS53 KSGF 222136
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
436 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

MOC125-222200-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0391.000000T0000Z-110722T2200Z/
MARIES MO-
436 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT 
FOR MARIES COUNTY...

AT 435 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF VICHY...OR 14 MILES
NORTH OF ROLLA...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE VICHY AND VIENNA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...IF
YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3830 9185 3829 9176 3818 9171 3810 9172
      3805 9187 3829 9203 3830 9188
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 163DEG 7KT 3814 9186
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

CRAMER

334 
WWUS53 KSGF 222158
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
458 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

MOC125-222209-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0391.000000T0000Z-110722T2200Z/
MARIES MO-
458 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MARIES COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER
SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3830 9185 3829 9176 3818 9171 3810 9172
      3805 9187 3829 9203 3830 9188
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 163DEG 7KT 3818 9188

$$

CRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...

PULSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION DESTABILIZES.  MESOANALYSIS INDICATING
1500-2000 J/K OF CAPE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND DESPITE A
LACK OF WIND SHEAR...WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OWNING TO
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL THETA-E DIFFERENTIALS. WITH NO ORGANIZED
FOCUSING/FORCING MECHANISM IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND SHOULD DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY
IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.

DESPITE CLEARING TRENDS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVING NORTH INTO THE REGION PER 2.3 INCH PWAT MEASURED ON 12Z
LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES QUITE
ELEVATED.  UNFORTUNATELY...GOING TO BE TOUGH TO GET TEMPS BELOW 80
WEST OF U.S. 65 TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.  IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON
PULSERS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. DESPITE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM WARMING BACK TO
OPPRESSIVE LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
100 DEGREE READINGS AGAIN EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
MISSOURI/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREASINGLY INTERESTING FOR THE AREA...AS
A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE A MOVE ON THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
DAY.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL MO BY MONDAY
MORNING.  DO HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
HEAT INDICES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER CAN GET GOING TO HELP MITIGATE TEMPS.
THAT BEING SAID...THINK THAT QUICK MORNING WARM-UP AND DEWPOINT
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL STILL RESULT IN 103-108 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES ACROSS THE CWA...EVEN IF OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER.  WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL BE EXTENDING THE HEAT
WARNING AND ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  AM PLANNING NO CHANGES
TO COUNTIES IN WARNING VS. ADVISORY...WITH THE WARNING CONTINUING
NORTH OF THE PLATEAU WHERE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER
ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COOL FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS A BIT LOWER FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WITH THAT
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA...ALSO HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGGED TO LIFT BACK NORTH ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO
HEAT AND HUMIDITY SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK...AND AN EVENTUAL RETURN
TO THE HEAT RELATED HEADLINES.

BOXELL

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S. BASES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH WITH
6000-7000 FOOT BASES. WOULDNT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED PULSE
THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER
THE PAST DAY AND THE WEAKENING THERMAL CAP BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ079>083-089>092-
     094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
347 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-232100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
347 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...EXTREME.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  EXTREME RISK FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT.
  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS
  EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
  CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. WHILE
  WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW THUNDERSTORM
  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
  STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL REACH VALUES NEAR 105
  DEGREES TODAY. A FEW AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 COULD SEE
  VALUES APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. IN ADDITION TO THE OPPRESSIVE
  AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES...LOW TEMPERATURES
  TONIGHT WILL BE SLOW TO COOL...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO
  THE UPPER 70S OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS...AND ONLY INTO THE LOW
  80S OVER WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN
  KANSAS. THESE VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ENHANCE THE OVERALL
  HEAT THREAT.

  AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY
  OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WHERE VEGETATION
  IS QUITE DRY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW...AND MODERATELY
  STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING
  ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND
  110 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 70S.

  ALONG WITH THE HEAT RISK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
  THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

  OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
  EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK...THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
  WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL