Severe Thunderstorm Warning 308, NWS Springfield, MO

790 
WWUS53 KSGF 162101
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
401 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

MOC153-213-162111-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0308.000000T0000Z-110616T2115Z/
OZARK MO-TANEY MO-
401 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TANEY AND OZARK
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER
SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3650 9297 3666 9288 3673 9229 3649 9228
      3649 9272
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 269DEG 34KT 3655 9238

$$

GRIFFIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT THEN
WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMITED OUR INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES LIMITED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. DEW POINTS WERE
BEGINNING TO CREEP UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 60S BUT MODEL GUIDANCE
WAS WELL OVERDONE WITH THIS TODAY. CURRENT MCS HAS TAKEN A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK ALONG THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW CELLS WERE TRYING TO POP UP ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...HOWEVER MAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE THE REMNANT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
WARM FRONT SETTING UP NORTH OF THE AREA. DECENT SIZE THERMAL CAP
WILL SET UP IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT LOW END POPS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI...HOWEVER MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MONITORING CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH MCS
OVER EASTERN KANSAS. CURRENT TRACK IS EAST SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT THE JLN TAF THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE IT ALSO MOVING INTO
THE SGF TERMINAL ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THIS WILL BE LESS LIKELY THAN
JLN. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF BBG BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST LATER IF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS AND TRACKS
MORE EAST. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO END BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-172000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
256 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...LIMITED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

LIMITED DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
LIMITED LARGE HAIL RISK.
LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WAS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS PUSHED
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE STORMS MOVING INTO
OKLAHOMA...A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...MOST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR WEST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PASS ALONG ANY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS
OR LARGE HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG