Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Springfield, MO

May 12, 2011Cedar County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 12, 2011, 4:54 PM CDT for Cedar County, Missouri. It was in force for 66 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 12, 2011, 4:54 PM CDT (21:54 UTC)
Expired: May 12, 2011, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 66 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Cedar County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 12, 5:00 PM CDT	HAIL 1	1 S Bearcreek, MO

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 6 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 12, 3:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 96 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1317 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 180 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 134 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

460 
WUUS53 KSGF 122154
SVRSGF
MOC039-122300-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0153.110512T2154Z-110512T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
454 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CEDAR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

* AT 447 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTH OF JERICO SPRINGS...OR 11 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF LAMAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM IS
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ARNICA...BEARCREEK...CANE HILL...
  CAPLINGER MILLS...CEDAR SPRINGS...EL DORADO SPRINGS...FILLEY...
  JERICO SPRINGS...OLYMPIA...STOCKTON...UMBER VIEW HEIGHTS AND
  WAGONER.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE STOCKTON LAKE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 9407 3790 9403 3789 9382 3783 9381
      3783 9363 3775 9363 3774 9361 3766 9361
      3757 9372 3758 9408
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 211DEG 24KT 3746 9408
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$

CRAMER

1 follow-up statement

291 
WWUS53 KSGF 122216 RRA
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
516 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

MOC039-122300-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-110512T2300Z/
CEDAR MO-
516 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR CEDAR COUNTY...

AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JERICO SPRINGS...
OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF GREENFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL 
SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WILL MOVE 
DIRECTLY OVER THE MAIN CHANNEL OF STOCKTON LAKE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ARNICA...BEARCREEK...CANE HILL...CAPLINGER
MILLS...CEDAR SPRINGS...EL DORADO SPRINGS...FILLEY...JERICO
SPRINGS...OLYMPIA...STOCKTON...UMBER VIEW HEIGHTS AND WAGONER.

ANYONE CAMPING ALONG WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS SHOULD SEEK 
SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.  BOATERS SHOULD GET OFF THE LAKE 
IMMEDIATELY...AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR ON 
THE LAKE...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MAIN CHANNEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 9407 3790 9403 3789 9382 3783 9381
      3783 9363 3775 9363 3774 9361 3766 9361
      3757 9372 3758 9408
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 221DEG 30KT 3754 9392
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$

CRAMER

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 12, 2:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 12, 2:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 58 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/

AN UPPER LOW WAS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CURLED INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
HAD BEEN CONFINED TO EASTERN TEXAS WITH A FEW CELLS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. IT APPEARS THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY INITIATE ACROSS OKLAHOMA THEN SPREAD
NORTHEAST AS A MID LEVEL JET STREAKS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND A GRADUAL COOLING
OF THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THESE FACTORS AND AN INCREASE
IN DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. THE
COOLING THERMAL PROFILE WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL.
THE RISK OF TORNADOES IS LOW AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE
BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CAPE DOES EXIST.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. WITH THE COLD CORE OVERHEAD
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF STRONG TO ISOLATED STORMS WITH HAIL. THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRANSLATE OFF TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER UPPER LOW OR
TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALBEIT LESS COVERAGE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP AND WE REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY UNDER A
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ATTEMPT TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...KSGF/KJLN/KBBG...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER 2 PM SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE OZARKS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY A
MVFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE SCATTERED
NATURE THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE...LOCATION AND TIMING
CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE REGARDING THE CURRENT TAFS. AFTER
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION CAN BE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS
MISSOURI ON FRIDAY.

KURTZ

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, May 12, 12:23 PM CDT, 4 hours 31 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-131730-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1223 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL.
LIMITED RISK FOR TORNADOES.
ELEVATED RISK FOR LIGHTNING.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM AND CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE GREATEST RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 AND 10 PM ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

THE PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THIS RISK OF A SHORT LIVED TORNADO IS LIMITED...AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...IF ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
 SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 12, 12:07 PM CDT, 4 hours 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1207 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     TORNADO          1 ESE ANDERSON          36.64N 94.42W
05/11/2011                   MCDONALD           MO   NWS STORM SURVEY

            NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE SURVEY ASSESSMENT TEAM
            CONFIRMED AN EF-0 TORNADO EAST OF ANDERSON. MULTIPLE
            LIMBS DOWN...TREES DOWN...AND ROOF DAMAGE TO A BARN ALONG
            CEDAR STREET. APPROXIMATE PATH LENGTH OF THREE QUARTERS
            OF A MILE WITH A PATH WIDTH OF 75 YARDS. WIND SPEEDS
            ESTIMATED BETWEEN 70 AND 80 MPH.

&&

JTK

Special weather statement, May 12, 4:29 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
429 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

MOZ096-122215-
DOUGLAS MO-
429 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM
CDT...

AT 428 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROME...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF AVA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AVA...BRUSHYKNOB...GOODHOPE...ROME AND
SQUIRES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3706 9269 3706 9236 3681 9268 3687 9285
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 215DEG 25KT 3689 9272

GRIFFIN

Local storm report, May 12, 4:47 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
447 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     HAIL             3 S AVA                 36.91N 92.66W
05/12/2011  E0.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            PEA TO DIME HAIL

&&

GAEDE

Local storm report, May 12, 4:50 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
450 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             FRANKLIN                37.53N 94.71W
05/12/2011  E1.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GAEDE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 11, 7:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	McDonald, Newton	47 min
May 11, 7:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barry, McDonald	44 min
May 12, 4:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Douglas	46 min
May 12, 4:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barton	44 min
May 12, 4:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barton, Dade, Jasper	56 min
May 12, 4:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Douglas	36 min
May 12, 4:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Vernon	47 min
May 12, 5:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Wright	44 min
May 12, 5:21 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Cedar, Dade, Polk	54 min
May 12, 5:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Benton, St. Clair	66 min
May 12, 5:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Camden, Dallas, Laclede	51 min
May 12, 5:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Wright	34 min
May 12, 5:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	St. Clair	48 min
May 12, 5:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Camden, Miller, Morgan	52 min
May 12, 5:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Jasper	64 min
May 12, 6:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dallas, Hickory	60 min
May 12, 6:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Laclede, Wright	30 min
May 12, 6:01 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Jasper	59 min
May 12, 6:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Benton, Morgan	39 min
May 12, 6:15 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Polk	45 min
May 12, 6:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Newton	58 min
May 12, 6:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Pulaski	26 min
May 12, 6:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Camden, Laclede, Maries, Miller, Pulaski	43 min
May 12, 6:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barton, Dade	49 min
May 12, 6:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Camden, Laclede	38 min
May 12, 6:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Miller, Morgan	49 min
May 12, 6:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Camden, Dallas, Hickory	37 min
May 12, 6:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Jasper	48 min
May 12, 6:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Cedar	42 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.