Alert archive / Missouri / Flash Flood Watches in 2011

Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Springfield, MO

April 30, 20118 counties in Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this flash flood watch at Apr 30, 2011, 3:53 AM CDT for 8 counties in Missouri. It took effect at May 1, 2011, 7:00 AM CDT. It was in force for 40 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Apr 30, 2011, 3:53 AM CDT (08:53 UTC)
In effect from
May 1, 2011, 7:00 AM CDT
Expired
May 2, 2011, 11:29 PM CDT
In force
40 hr
Issued by
NWS Springfield, MO
Flood severity
None

Counties Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Howell County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 159 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2011-04-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2011-04-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 118 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2599 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
118 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
518 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

594 
WGUS63 KSGF 300853
FFASGF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
353 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...

.A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THEN WILL STALL
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS STALLED FRONT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS WILL LIKELY BE JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS HEAVIER RAIN
AXIS WILL LIKELY NUDGE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. AS A RESULT
WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM IS EXPECTED
SOUTHEAST OF A AVA TO HOUSTON MISSOURI LINE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF 
VERY MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK...MAY
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING ACROSS THESE AREAS.

MOZ082-096>098-105-106-010000-
/O.NEW.KSGF.FF.A.0002.110501T1200Z-110503T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TEXAS-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...AVA...WEST PLAINS...
WINONA...EMINENCE...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
353 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND 
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH 
  CENTRAL MISSOURI...HOWELL...OREGON...SHANNON AND TEXAS. IN 
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...DOUGLAS AND OZARK.

* FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY
  HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM
  SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST OF AN AVA TO
  HOUSTON MISSOURI LINE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON AN INTERMITTENT BASIS
  DURING THIS TIME WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE OZARK TERRAIN WILL POTENTIALLY
  LEAD TO DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING. POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...SMALL
  STREAMS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE PARTICULARLY
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.

IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE OZARK SCENIC
RIVERWAYS FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL. 

THOSE WITH RECREATIONAL PLANS NEAR AREA RIVERS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

WISE
9 follow-up statements
865 
WGUS63 KSGF 301919
FFASGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
219 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS STALLED
FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS WILL LIKELY
CLIP THE EASTERN OZARKS...WITH A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL SOUTHEAST OF AN AVA TO HOUSTON MISSOURI LINE. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS TO
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 

MOZ082-096>098-105-106-010330-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.A.0002.110501T1200Z-110503T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TEXAS-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...AVA...WEST PLAINS...
WINONA...EMINENCE...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
219 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR...

* PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  HOWELL...OREGON...SHANNON AND TEXAS COUNTIES. IN SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI...DOUGLAS AND OZARK COUNTIES.

* FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY 
  HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED 
  FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST OF AN 
  AVA TO HOUSTON MISSOURI LINE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND 
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON AN INTERMITTENT BASIS 
  DURING THIS TIME WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY 
  AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

* THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE OZARK TERRAIN WILL 
  POTENTIALLY LEAD TO DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING. POOR DRAINAGE 
  AREAS...SMALL STREAMS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE 
  PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. 

IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE OZARK SCENIC
RIVERWAYS FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL.

THOSE WITH RECREATIONAL PLANS NEAR AREA RIVERS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

BOXELL
337 
WGUS63 KSGF 010307
FFASGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1007 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS STALLED FRONT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS WILL LIKELY CLIP THE EASTERN
OZARKS...WITH A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL SOUTHEAST
OF AN AVA TO HOUSTON MISSOURI LINE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
COMBINE WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MOZ082-096>098-105-106-011115-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.A.0002.110501T1200Z-110503T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TEXAS-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...AVA...WEST PLAINS...
WINONA...EMINENCE...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
1007 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  HOWELL...OREGON...SHANNON AND TEXAS. IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  DOUGLAS AND OZARK.

* FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY 
  HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED 
  FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST OF AN 
  AVA TO HOUSTON MISSOURI LINE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND 
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON AN INTERMITTENT BASIS 
  DURING THIS TIME WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY 
  AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

* THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE OZARK TERRAIN WILL 
  POTENTIALLY LEAD TO DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING. POOR DRAINAGE 
  AREAS...SMALL STREAMS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE 
  PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. 

IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE OZARK SCENIC
RIVERWAYS FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL.

THOSE WITH RECREATIONAL PLANS NEAR AREA RIVERS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

DSA
851 
WGUS63 KSGF 010845
FFASGF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
345 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
TODAY INTO MONDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS STALLED FRONT LATE THIS MORNING
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS WILL LIKELY CLIP THE
EASTERN OZARKS...WITH A WIDESPREAD ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A BRANSON TO AVA TO SALEM MISSOURI
LINE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

MOZ083-104-011645-
/O.EXA.KSGF.FF.A.0002.110501T1200Z-110503T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DENT-TANEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALEM...BRANSON...FORSYTH
345 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL 
  MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...DENT. IN SOUTHWEST 
  MISSOURI...TANEY.

* FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY
  HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO MONDAY
  EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A BRANSON TO AVA TO SALEM MISSOURI LINE.
  MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
  REGION ON AN INTERMITTENT BASIS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
  HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
  MORNING.

* THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE OZARK TERRAIN WILL 
  POTENTIALLY LEAD TO DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING. POOR DRAINAGE 
  AREAS...SMALL STREAMS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE 
  PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. 

IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE OZARK SCENIC
RIVERWAYS FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL.

THOSE WITH RECREATIONAL PLANS NEAR AREA RIVERS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

MOZ082-096>098-105-106-011645-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.A.0002.110501T1200Z-110503T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TEXAS-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...AVA...WEST PLAINS...
WINONA...EMINENCE...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
345 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  HOWELL...OREGON...SHANNON AND TEXAS. IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  DOUGLAS AND OZARK.

* FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY
  HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO MONDAY
  EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A BRANSON TO AVA TO SALEM MISSOURI LINE.
  MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
  REGION ON AN INTERMITTENT BASIS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
  HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
  MORNING.

* THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE OZARK TERRAIN WILL 
  POTENTIALLY LEAD TO DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING. POOR DRAINAGE 
  AREAS...SMALL STREAMS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE 
  PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. 

IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE OZARK SCENIC
RIVERWAYS FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL.

THOSE WITH RECREATIONAL PLANS NEAR AREA RIVERS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

WISE
141 
WGUS63 KSGF 010910
FFASGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
410 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
TODAY INTO MONDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS STALLED
FRONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO MONDAY EVENING AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS
WILL LIKELY CLIP THE EASTERN OZARKS...WITH A WIDESPREAD ONE TO
THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A BRANSON
TO AVA TO SALEM MISSOURI LINE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
COMBINE WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING.

MOZ082-083-096>098-104>106-020000-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.A.0002.110501T1200Z-110503T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TEXAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...BRANSON...FORSYTH...
GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
410 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  DENT...HOWELL...OREGON...SHANNON AND TEXAS. IN SOUTHWEST 
  MISSOURI...DOUGLAS...OZARK AND TANEY.

* THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH 
  LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS MORNING 
  INTO MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A BRANSON TO AVA TO SALEM 
  MISSOURI LINE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
  WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON AN INTERMITTENT BASIS DURING THIS 
  TIME WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON 
  THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

* THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE OZARK TERRAIN WILL 
  POTENTIALLY LEAD TO DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING. POOR DRAINAGE 
  AREAS...SMALL STREAMS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE 
  PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. 

IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE OZARK SCENIC
RIVERWAYS FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL.

THOSE WITH RECREATIONAL PLANS NEAR AREA RIVERS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

WISE
966 
WGUS63 KSGF 011952
FFASGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH
MONDAY...

.MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS
WILL LIKELY CLIP THE EASTERN OZARKS...WITH A WIDESPREAD ONE TO
THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A BRANSON
TO AVA TO SALEM MISSOURI LINE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
COMBINE WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING.

MOZ082-083-096>098-104>106-020400-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-110503T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TEXAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...BRANSON...FORSYTH...
GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
252 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR...

* PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  DENT...HOWELL...OREGON...SHANNON AND TEXAS COUNTIES. IN SOUTHWEST 
  MISSOURI...DOUGLAS...OZARK AND TANEY COUNTIES.

* THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY
  HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST
  OF A BRANSON TO AVA TO SALEM MISSOURI LINE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON AN
  INTERMITTENT BASIS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
  EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE OZARK TERRAIN WILL 
  POTENTIALLY LEAD TO DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING. POOR DRAINAGE 
  AREAS...SMALL STREAMS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE 
  PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. 

IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE OZARK SCENIC
RIVERWAYS FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL.

THOSE WITH RECREATIONAL PLANS NEAR AREA RIVERS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

BOXELL
831 
WGUS63 KSGF 020858
FFASGF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
358 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

.ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING
INTO TONIGHT. THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE EASTERN OZARKS...WITH
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD ONE HALF TO ONE AND HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
BRANSON TO AVA TO SALEM MISSOURI LINE. THE HEAVIEST PERIOD OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS TO
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

MOZ082-083-096>098-104>106-030000-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-110503T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TEXAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...BRANSON...FORSYTH...
GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
358 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  DENT...HOWELL...OREGON...SHANNON AND TEXAS. IN SOUTHWEST 
  MISSOURI...DOUGLAS...OZARK AND TANEY.

* TIMING...LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. 

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES
  WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
  SOUTHEAST OF A BRANSON TO AVA TO SALEM MISSOURI LINE. THIS
  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON TOP OF THE TWO TO THREE INCHES
  OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED ON SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
  CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
  THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

* THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE OZARK TERRAIN WILL 
  POTENTIALLY LEAD TO DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING. POOR DRAINAGE 
  AREAS...SMALL STREAMS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE 
  PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. 

IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG PINEY
RIVER ACROSS THE OZARK SCENIC RIVERWAYS FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL.

THOSE WITH RECREATIONAL PLANS NEAR AREA RIVERS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

WISE
311 
WGUS63 KSGF 021828
FFASGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
128 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
INTO THIS EVENING. THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NORTH OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE
EASTERN OZARKS...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE HALF INCH TO
LOCALLY ONE INCH POSSIBLE. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL COMBINE
WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

MOZ082-083-096>098-104>106-030600-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-110503T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TEXAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...BRANSON...FORSYTH...
GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
128 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  DENT...HOWELL...OREGON...SHANNON AND TEXAS. IN SOUTHWEST 
  MISSOURI...DOUGLAS...OZARK AND TANEY.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH ARE
  EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A BRANSON TO SALEM
  MISSOURI LINE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON TOP OF THE
  TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED SINCE SUNDAY
  ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

* THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE OZARK TERRAIN WILL POTENTIALLY
  LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...OR AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLOODING. POOR DRAINAGE
  AREAS...SMALL STREAMS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE
  PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.

IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING WILL IMPACT THE BIG PINEY...AND JACKS
FORK RIVERS.

THOSE WITH RECREATIONAL PLANS NEAR AREA RIVERS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

FOSTER
972 
WGUS63 KSGF 030232
FFASGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
932 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
INTO THIS EVENING. THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NORTH OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE
EASTERN OZARKS...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL COMBINE
WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

MOZ082-083-096>098-104>106-030600-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-110503T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TEXAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...BRANSON...FORSYTH...
GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
932 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  DENT...HOWELL...OREGON...SHANNON AND TEXAS. IN SOUTHWEST 
  MISSOURI...DOUGLAS...OZARK AND TANEY.

* UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER INCH TO LOCALLY HALF
  AN INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A BRANSON
  TO SALEM MISSOURI LINE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON
  TOP OF THE TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED
  SINCE SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

* THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE OZARK TERRAIN WILL 
  POTENTIALLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...OR AGGRAVATE EXISTING 
  FLOODING. POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...SMALL STREAMS...AND LOW WATER 
  CROSSINGS WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. 

IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING WILL IMPACT THE BIG PINEY...AND
JACKS FORK RIVERS.

THOSE WITH RECREATIONAL PLANS NEAR AREA RIVERS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

GRIFFIN
544 
WGUS63 KSGF 030429
FFASGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1129 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011


MOZ082-083-096>098-104>106-030530-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-110503T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TEXAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...BRANSON...FORSYTH...
GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
1129 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HEAVIER RAIN HAVE SHIFTED
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SOME RESIDUAL FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO MONDAY. 

$$

DSA

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Apr 30, 3:40 AM CDT, 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 3:40 AM CDT, 13 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
340 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THEN ATTENTION
TURNS TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND A RISK FOR FLOODING FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS THE RESULT A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SETUP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BREEZY
AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THIS MORNING...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND SO TOO WILL THE WINDS THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS ALSO SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
AND WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
STRONG CAP ACROSS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING
THE CAP SHOULD BEING TO WEAKEN WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND AS
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...SO ITS POSSIBLE THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS
JUST TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS IS MORE OF
A MESOSCALE ISSUE. WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH THIS
TOO WILL BE WHERE THE BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS. HOWEVER
ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY NOSE INTO THE AREA FOR A FEW STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
PLACE SO THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE LARGE HAIL. IF THE STORMS LINE
OUT BEFORE THE EXIT THE AREA...THERE WILL BE A WIND RISK...HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE BETTER TO THE SOUTH. THE TORNADO RISK
LOOKS LOW AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VEERED AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED.

FEEL THE CONVECTION WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PUSHING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOST ACTIVITY PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH ARKANSAS TONIGHT
AND MAY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US AND ENERGY
FROM THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT TO CREATE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI. HOWEVER...FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF THIS HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST
OF AN AVA TO HOUSTON MISSOURI LINE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN SOIL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH DURING THIS
TIME...SO WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS
PACKAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REALLY TAPER OFF TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE ALL THE PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...LOWS MAY DROP INTO
THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND MAY
BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1125 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2011/

FOR THE 30/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CAPPING WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WILL
PRODUCE LOW END VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
ALL TAFS SITES TONIGHT.

DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 29, 12:51 PM CDT, 15 hours 2 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1251 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1251 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...LIMITED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HIGH WIND RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
  STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
  WESTERN MISSOURI WHERE GUSTS OVER 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
  TIMES.

  FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SOME AREA STREAMS...RIVERS...AND
  FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN RESPONSE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
  LOCATIONS ALONG THE WHITE RIVER AND LAKE TANEYCOMO WILL
  CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH WATER LEVELS AS DAM RELEASES CONTINUE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
  AREA ON SATURDAY.

  MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
  THIS WEEKEND...AND POTENTIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD
  TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT
  APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING
  WILL BE SOUTH OF A CASSVILLE TO SALEM LINE.

  A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM LATE
  SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING ALONG AN
  ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS.
  THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME
  AS A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS
  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ANY
  THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ALONG OR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
  OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING HAIL TO
  THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

  THERE IS THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE
  END OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Missouri, 2011Every flash flood watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.