Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Springfield, MO

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1214 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-251815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1214 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME POSITIONED ALONG THE MISSOURI
ARKANSAS BORDER LATER TODAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MISSOURI
MAINLY SOUTH OF A SALEM TO NEOSHO LINE WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER
ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE STORMS CAN TRAIN
TODAY.

INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS MISSOURI
STATE LINE...WHERE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE BEST
TORNADO AND WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH IN
ARKANSAS...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A HAIL THREAT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
AN ANDERSON TO ROLLA LINE.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA...NORTH OF U.S. 54. WHILE NO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED RIGHT NOW...SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL LIKELY CAUSE ISOLATED TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...COLDER AIR
WILL SPILL SOUTH...RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING SOUTH AND
EAST INTO MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY REPORTS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OR SNOW
WILL BE APPRECIATED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL