Storm Watch 1, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PST SUN FEB 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INLAND ON MONDAY PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND SHOWERY
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIP WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BY 03Z...WITH RAIN IN THE NORTH INTERIOR BY 06Z.

ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY. MODELS SWING A 985 MB
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY KICK UP THE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW PRETTY TIGHT SE PRES GRADIENTS
WITH HIGHEST WINDS FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO THE NORTH
INTERIOR. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH TO COVER. THE COLD OR
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
HEADS INTO B.C. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS W/SW WITH GRADIENTS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE INTERIOR. WILL INDICATE WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND MAY SEE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS THE FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL EASE ACROSS MOST AREAS MON
NIGHT.

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE ON TUE AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES INLAND TUE NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE ON
WHERE THE LOW WILL MAKE LANDFALL...POSSIBLY THE NORTH COAST. IN ANY
CASE...MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND ON WED...PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
TREND BELOW NORMAL. 33

.LONG TERM...A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAC NW FROM
MID WEEK ONWARD. A SERIES OF COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE
REGION KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. MODELS KEEP THE COLD CONTINENTAL
AIR BOTTLED-UP IN INTERIOR B.C. BUT WE MAY SEE SOME FRASER RIVER
OUTFLOW THU NIGHT OR FRI ACCORDING TO THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE EURO
KEEPS THE COLD AIR EAST OF THE CREST. SNOW LEVELS ARE ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED FEET AGL BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING LOWLAND SNOW IS STILL LOW
AT THIS POINT. THE EXTENDED UW WRF GFS DOES SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS TREND CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCLEAR
AT THE MOMENT AS THE MODELS REMAIN OUT OF PHASE. WILL KEEPS POPS
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER CRESTED AROUND 14.1 FEET EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS SLOWLY RECEDING. RAIN WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS. ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE BASIN BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD PUSH THE SKOKOMISH TO NEAR
FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FOR MASON COUNTY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE RIVER BASINS...WILL SEE RISES OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT THE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS ON THE RIVERS.

PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
THE SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO NEAR 1000 FEET. THIS COOL AND
SOMEWHAT DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OUTSIDE OF THE SKOKOMISH...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
10 DAYS INCLUDING THE GREEN RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROF OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE MOVING E...
RESULTING IN INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR A
WMFNT TO LIFT N ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A STRONG CDFNT LATE IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME
STRONG SLY ON MON.

ANTICIPATE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU MON MORNING BUT THERE WILL
BE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY LATER TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING. CIGS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY MON AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS
OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO RAIN.

KSEA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS /CIGS ABOVE 3K FT/ THRU MON MORNING.
CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO NEAR 2500 FT MON AFTERNOON. THE WMFNT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 1200 AND 1500 UTC. WINDS WILL BE ELY 5
TO 10 KT...BECOMING SLY 10 10-15 KT BEHIND THE WMFNT.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT OFF THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS WILL LIFT N ACROSS THE
AREA MON MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MON AFTERNOON...AND THE REST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH GALE FORCE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE
REMAINING WATERS. EXPECT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
ON TUE.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HIGH WIND WATCH COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR MONDAY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
     WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TIL 6 AM MON.

     A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL STRAIT
     OF JUAN DE FUCA FROM LATE TONIGHT THRU MON AFTERNOON.

     STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE
     TO THE STRAIT  OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING WATERS EXCEPT THE
     CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

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