Small Craft Advisory 646, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST MON FEB 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT...HOWEVER
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING MORE WET BLUSTERY WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THAT FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND SNOW LEVELS
COULD FALL BELOW 500 FEET LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. A
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BOLSTERED BY A 130 KT JET STREAK MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FRONT ITSELF
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO THE COAST
AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR. A LINE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT REACHED THE COAST AROUND 4 PM WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS...AND THIS FEATURED MOVED THROUGH THE PUGET SOUND
AREA IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED FORM AROUND 6 PM.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES TO THE EASTERN BORDER
OF WASHINGTON TONIGHT...AND THE BURST OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN. IN GENERAL RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS AROUND
3500 FT EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL FALL TO AROUND 1500 FT
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT WILL CAUSE ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE TO DEVELOP...
WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST IT WILL RENEW WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE JET...MORE THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN SQUALLS ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION -- ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN LOW -- AROUND 1500 FT -- BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL
NOT BE A SPECTACULAR SNOW PRODUCER...GENERALLY BRINGING ANOTHER 4 TO
8 INCHES OF SNOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL NOT BE ANYTHING LIKE A PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR AT THIS POINT BUT THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL
WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE FALLING TO AROUND -5 C...THE 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS DROPPING BELOW 1300 METERS...AND THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING
TO AROUND 500 FT. SO PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS SNOW ON SOME OF THE
HIGHER HILLS OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND
DURING THE MORNING OR IN HEAVY SHOWERS.  MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION -- MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE PATTERN FROM FRI THROUGH SUN. THE 18Z GFS AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW A MODIFIED ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVING INTO W WA THU
NIGHT OR FRI MORNING WITH AN UPPER LOW W OF KHQM. THE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH. MODELS NOW SHOW DRYING ON SAT WITH COLD
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC BOUNDARY DRIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY. GIVEN A LITTLE BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY OF LATE...WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS DOWNWARD...BUT WILL CALL FOR MAINLY
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GFS SOLUTIONS WERE DRIER.
ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH WILL CREST ABOUT 3
INCHES BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS EVENING...AND A FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL FALL SLOWLY TONIGHT. NO
OTHER RIVERS IN THE FORECAST AREA ARE NEAR FLOOD STAGE.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT A FLOOD PRODUCING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT TEN DAYS. ON THE CONTRARY COOL WEATHER WILL PRECLUDE
ANY THREAT OF FLOODING ON THE GREEN OR ANY OTHER WESTERN WASHINGTON
RIVERS. MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT THRU TUE. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THRU TUE MORNING AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUE
NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRES SYS REACHES THE AREA. THE 00Z NAM PUTS A
VIGOROUS FRONT THRU WRN WA EARLY TUE AFTERNOON...AND THEN BRINGS A
TROUGH INTO THE AREA TUE NITE AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OFF THE NW
COAST. PERIODS OF BLUSTERY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...TAPERING
OFF THRU TUE MORNING...THEN THE FRONT EARLY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SQUALLS AND AGAIN WITH THE TROF TUE NITE.
PERIODS OF GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH THE SHOWERS AND BREAKS
BETWEEN. 19

KSEA...SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING ON AVERAGE THRU TUE MORNING THEN TAKING A DIVE WITH THE
NEXT FRONT EARLY TUE AFTERNOON AND THE TROF TUE NITE.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THRU TUE MORNING
AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRES SYS REACHES
THE AREA. THE 00Z NAM PUTS A VIGOROUS FRONT THRU WRN WA EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN BRINGS A TROUGH INTO THE AREA TUE NITE AS THE
LOW CENTER MOVES OFF THE NW COAST. THE WRFGFS HAS THE WIND AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM RISING AGAIN TO GALES TUE MORNING...FLIRTING WITH
GALES AT TIMES THRU TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWING AREAS
OF EASTERLY WIND 30KT IN THE STRAIT WED MORNING WITH WESTERLIES UP
TO 30KT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WHICH DOESN'T REACH THE NORTH
COAST TIL MIDDAY WED. I THINK FOR NOW I WILL EXTEND THE GALES FOR
THE COAST AND ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT RIGHT ON THRU TUE NITE OR WED.
THE REMAINING WATERS WILL BE A TOUGHER CALL AND WILL BE MORE
SENSITIVE TO THE MODELS BEING RIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN
THAT THE WINDIER SPOTS WILL NEED GALE WARNINGS FOR ANOTHER 36HRS. 19

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...NONE.

PZ...GALE WARNINGS ALL WATERS TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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