Gale Watch 32, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY...KEEPING WARM
AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND SUNDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT WILL
BRING MORE RAIN AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. AFTER
SHOWERS TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING THE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS AREAS OF
STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING NORTH TO ABOUT SEATAC.
ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH COAST WHICH STILL IS
COVERED WITH CLOUDS FROM THE OFFSHORE FRONT. THE DAY IS ON TRACK TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH COAST AS THE FRONT PIVOTS AND
RETREATS A BIT. LAST NIGHT WAS WARM AGAIN...LOWS WERE IN THE 50S AND
60S. TODAY SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S.

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT INLAND
ON SUNDAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN ON THE COAST TONIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND
AROUND 12Z. THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
MOST PLACES WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NAM IS DRIER WITH A
NOTABLE HOLE OVER THE SEATTLE AREA. ALL IN ALL THE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUNDAY SEEM ABOUT RIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A GOOD TEN DEGREES
FROM TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH
CASCADES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BREEZY...PERHAPS WINDY
ON THE COAST.

AFTER A LULL IN THE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO EVERYWHERE IN GENERALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAN THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. LOWLANDS WILL SEE AROUND A HALF INCH
OF RAIN AND THE MOUNTAINS HAVE A FEW TWO INCH BULLSEYES. HIGH TEMPS
WILL FALL FURTHER...INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE BREEZY...WINDY ON THE COAST. WILL CONSIDER ISSUING A
STATEMENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ADVERTISE A
BREAK FROM THE WEATHER WED INTO THU AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE PAC NW. MODELS SHOW A FOUR CORNERS HIGH /H5 588 DAM/
EXTENDING NORTHWEST THROUGH B.C. KNOCKED POPS DOWN AS THIS HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE DELAYS OUR NEXT SYSTEM. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
ROCKIES BY FRI WITH SOME MOISTURE CLIPPING W WA. WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LONG WAVE TROUGHING MAY SETTLE OVER
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS AND A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE FORECAST. 33

&&

.AVIATION...WRN WA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE INTERIOR W AND AN UPPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. STRONG SLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
LIGHT SLY.

THE AREAS OF STRATUS /CIGS 1-2K OVER THE COAST...500 TO 1K FT OVER
THE INTERIOR/ ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 1800 AND 2000 UTC. HOWEVER THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PERSISTING OVER THE COAST TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LOOK FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WAS WELL OFFSHORE.

KSEA...THE STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT BY 1900 UTC. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BROKEN CIGS NEAR 1K FT
BETWEEN NOW AND 1800 UTC. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVER THE TERMINAL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR 6 KNOTS OR
LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TODAY. EXPECT A 992 MB LOW TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MON.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     AND WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     COASTAL WATERS.

&&

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