Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
547 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES THIS WEEKEND.
A FRONT IS POISED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING THE RIDGE FURTHER SOUTHWEST. A
BUBBLE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS HAS MOVED
UP INTO SRN WV AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT COVERAGE...LOWERING POPS IN THE SW MTNS OF VA AND RAISING
THEM ACROSS SE WV AND THE HIGHLANDS OF VA. ALSO...TEMPERATURES ARE
QUITE A BIT COOLER WHERE THERE WAS WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE NC MTNS
AND SW MTNS OF VA...AND THEY WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH BEFORE SUNSET.
STORMS SHOULD BE DIURNAL..SO COVERAGE WILL WANE BY LATE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
EXTREME SW PERSISTED JUST LONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO FORM.
OUTFLOW FROM THESE CELLS THEN PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH LIFTING FOR
STORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THIS UNSTABLE UNCAPPED
PROFILE. ALSO...DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY'S SOUNDING AND YESTERDAYS
WAS THE SOMEWHAT STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES. SOME OF THESE STORMS
HAVE ALREADY BECOME SEVERE WITH DMGG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. SLOW
MOVING TRAINING STORMS COULD EASILY PRODUCE FLOODING TOO. MOST
STORMS WILL ERODE TONIGHT BUT WITH SOME RENEGADE OUTFLOWS AROUND
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT.
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SIMILAR COVERAGE AND FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS
TOMORROW...BUT WITHOUT A SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SW HARD
TO SAY THEY WILL BE AS NUMEROUS. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE A
LITTLE MORE STEEPER AS WARMEST H85 VALUES ARE PUSHED INTO THE
SOUTHSIDE AND SE WEST VA AND NEW RIVER VALLEY H85 TEMPS LOSE A
DEGREE OR TWO. ALSO...A STRONGER AND PERSISTENT WNW WIND SHOULD
ALLOW BETTER MIXING OF DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S BY PM...SAVE
THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE WHERE MORE OF A SW TO WSW WIND WILL
PERSIST. WENT ABV MOS DEWPOINTS THERE FOR TOMORROW. WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS AGAIN IN THE SOUTHSIDE AND PIEDMONT HOISTED ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT DIDNT GO AS FAR WEST WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS CRITERIA HASNT BEEN MET
RECENTLY...BUT WILL STILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. ALSO...SLIGHTLY COOLER
H85 TEMPS AND DOWNSLOPED DEWPOINTS SHOULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF HEAT INDICES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY SUNDAY AS A COOL FRONT LOCATED TO THE NORTH
BEGINS TYING TO DROP SOUTH. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE RETROGRADING H5
UPPER RIDGE WHICH STARTS TO OCCUR SUNDAY ACCORDING TO MOST LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE. FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS SO SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO
CONTINUE FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE 100+ VALUES SEEM LIKELY. WARMS LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING WITHIN ONLY UPPER 60 TO MID-70S.

FRONT SHOULD MAKE SOME BETTER PROGRESS ON MONDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED AND TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER NEW
ENGLAND. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH CHANCE IN THE PIEDMONT. THE STORMS WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OBVIOUSLY AS PWATS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE 1.50 TO NEARLY 2 INCH RANGE. SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAUSE PRODUCE
LOCAL RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND WET DOWNBURST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OMNIPRESENT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS
REACHES IT WESTERNMOST EXTENT ABOUT TUESDAY AND THEN MODELS BEGIN TO
SHIFT RIDGE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE EAST BY MID- TO LATE WEEK AND MAY
BE POSITIONED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. THE RESULT WOULD BE
INCREASED HEAT YET AGAIN AND A POSSIBLE REPLAY OF YESTERDAY AND
TODAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOMETHING LIKE THIS WITH 596DM
HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. SO BOTTOM LINE IS A
CONTINUATION OF THE PATTERN..SLIGHT COOLING EARLY WEEK FOLLOWED BY
INTENSIFICATION OF THE HEAT THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. COULD BE LOOKING AT MORE HEAT ADVISORIES/WARNINGS.
MAINTAINED AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE SINCE
THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND MOISTURE MAKES STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
ALMOST ANY WEAK TRIGGER..ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLUSTER OF STORM WHICH DEVELOPED THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WILL BE AFFECTING BLF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT MORE STORMS FIRE SOUTH OF BLF AND AFFECT THE
TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME TEMPO IFR CONDS MAY RESULT.
FEW ISOLATED CELLS ALSO POPPING UP NEAR ROA/BCB SO THESE TERMINALS
MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SHOULD FOLLOW LAST
NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG DURATION AND INTENSITY...WITH LIFR AT LWB
AND BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR ELSEWHERE. CONSIDERING THE STORMS AT BLF
CURRENTLY...THIS MAY ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR LIFR FOG THERE LATE
TONIGHT. LWB AND POSSIBLY BLF SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z.

THE SATURDAY FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH SCT
STORMS IN THE MTNS IN THE AFTN...FOLLOWED BY FOG AGAIN SAT NIGHT
IN THE MTNS AND LYH/DAN POSSIBLY.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FRONT
MOVING IN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING A BETTER THREAT OF TSRA TO MOST
OF THE CWA MONDAY. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES INTO TUESDAY MORNING
THERE SHOULD BE SOME IFR FOG WITH A WET GROUND THEN A DRY TUESDAY
PM FOLLOWS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BLUEFIELD HAS ALREADY SET A NEW RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY JULY 22ND.

RECORD HIGHS   FRI/22ND

ROANOKE        103/1952
LYNCHBURG      102/1926
DANVILLE       104/1952
BLACKSBURG      95/1983
BLUEFIELD       87/2008

RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
               FRI/22ND

ROANOKE        75/1912
LYNCHBURG      80/1930
DANVILLE       76/1977
BLACKSBURG     70/1983
BLUEFIELD      72/2010

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ019-022>024-
     032>035-043>045-058.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ046-
     047-059.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ035-
     043>047-058-059.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ003>006-019-
     020.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM/WP
NEAR TERM...JJ/KM
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...KM/WP
CLIMATE...

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
552 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             1 SSE PULASKI           37.03N 80.79W
07/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       PULASKI            VA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER INCH HAIL REPORTED ON MILLER ROAD.

&&

RSTONEFI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
702 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

VAZ033-034-222345-
BEDFORD VA-FRANKLIN VA-
702 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BEDFORD AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 658 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
PENHOOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE STATE PARK AROUND 720 PM
AND MONETA AROUND 735 PM.

LAT...LON 3703 7957 3704 7959 3702 7960 3699 7966
      3705 7975 3723 7960 3709 7945

RCS