Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
256 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN  KENTUCKY WITH A FRONT TRAILING
FROM NEW JERSEY TO THE LOW...THEN INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT TWO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
PROBABILITY OF RAIN IS VERY HIGH BUT TIMING IS MORE QUESTIONABLE.
EXPECT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE...MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE
1500-2000 J/KG AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED LINES AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL ALSO GET ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. MODELS HAVE THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS COMING
AROUND TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST.

BEST PUSH OF DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS WILL BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF CLEARING
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION. HAVE LEFT
THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY.

USED LAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND GENERALLY STAYED CLOSER TO
COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED OVER THE REGION.
WE ARE EXPECTING A TREND TOWARD HOTTER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...COOLER
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES THANKS TO LOWER DEW POINTS...AND DECREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF FLOYD VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...WE LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TO TAKE
PLACE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP
TOUCH OFF A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL HAVE RETROGRADED TO CLOSER TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND A GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND. WE ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER WEATHER WITH DAILY HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT AND HUMID SIDE IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT TWO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT EACH OF THE
TAFS SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH
WITH THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN BUT LOW WITH THE TIMING OF THE
STORMS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND TO IMPACT THE
AIRPORTS. THEN A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE COMING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL
BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE VERY HIGH AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THE STORMS.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS BRING THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT. LOW LEVELS WINDS TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED. EXCEPT FOR LWB...DID NOT PUT
LOWER CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IN SINCE EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF
THE NIGHT FOR THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA.

SAT NIGHT-MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE MISS
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPS. MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAY
SOUTH OF US...BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED AS FLOW TURNS SE TO SEE SOME
MTN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IN NW NC MONDAY AFTN. MODELS SHOWING
THE CAP WILL BE CLOSE SO MOST LOCALES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY
AND HOT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE
VFR WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION MONDAY...AND MORNING FOG
UNTIL SOILS HAVE A CHANCE TO DRY OUT UNDER THE HIGH. STORMS MAKE
A RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
RAINFALL RATES OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES PER HOUR COULD LEAD TO QUICK
RUNOFF RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IN SPOTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. MORE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SEE THE LATEST
WBCFFARNK...FLOOD WATCH...AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035-045>047.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018-019.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH
HYDROLOGY...AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
240 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-045>047-WVZ042>045-
091100-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-
BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
240 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS ALONG WITH THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043-044-058-059-091100-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX-
CHARLOTTE-
240 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

ALSO...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
531 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

VAZ047-082145-
BUCKINGHAM VA-
531 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BUCKINGHAM COUNTY...

AT 528 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF FORK UNION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR NEW CANTON AROUND 540 PM.

LAT...LON 3762 7825 3760 7829 3765 7842 3774 7845
      3775 7843 3774 7840 3774 7836 3772 7835
      3772 7829 3769 7826 3769 7824 3764 7824

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
533 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

NCZ004>006-VAZ043-044-082230-
CASWELL NC-HENRY VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-ROCKINGHAM NC-STOKES NC-
533 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CASWELL...HENRY...
PITTSYLVANIA...ROCKINGHAM AND STOKES COUNTIES...

AT 528 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WENTWORTH...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. EXPECT FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR EDEN...AND REIDSVILLE AROUND 540 PM...
HARRISONS CROSSROADS AROUND 545 PM...OREGON HILL...AND DRAPER AROUND
550 PM...LAWSONVILLE...AND AIKEN SUMMIT AROUND 555 PM...CASCADE
AROUND 600 PM...MAYFIELD AND AND RUFFIN AROUND 605 PM.

LAT...LON 3625 8009 3640 8006 3659 7984 3679 7941
      3658 7921 3654 7922 3654 7917 3652 7915
      3624 7967

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
544 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

VAZ018-022-023-034-082245-
BEDFORD VA-BOTETOURT VA-CRAIG VA-ROANOKE VA-
544 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BEDFORD...BOTETOURT...CRAIG AND
ROANOKE COUNTIES...

AT 542 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SINKING CREEK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. EXPECT FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ABBOTT...AND CATAWBA AROUND 550 PM...NEW
CASTLE AROUND 555 PM...DALEVILLE...AND CLOVERDALE AROUND 610 PM...
TROUTVILLE...AND LAYMANTOWN AROUND 615 PM...NACE...FINCASTLE AND AND
BLUE RIDGE AROUND 620 PM.

LAT...LON 3764 7971 3738 7962 3733 8026 3750 8032

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