Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
318 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDAY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTRUBANCE SWEEPS IT THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL HELP OUR WEATHER PATTERN TREND HOTTER AND
DRIER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME ACTIVITY WAS ALSO NOTED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT COVERAGE TO SLOWLY EXPAND AND
DEVELOP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AM NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF ACTIVITY AS WAS
EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH KENTUCKY...AND SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY RACING NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF IT...WILL BE KEEPING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THERE IS A WEAK INDICATION ONE OF THOSE SMALL PIECES
OF ENERGY MAY CROSS LATER TONIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...WE ARE EXPECTING A VERY GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND HEAVIEST RAIN
FROM ROUGHLY NOON AND ONWARD AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER KENTUCKY
APPROACHES. THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STALLED JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA
WILL FINALLY BE GIVEN A STRONG PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STORMS AS MOISTURE POOLS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE/FRONT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FROM THE
WEST IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AT 00Z/8PM SATURDAY...THEN CROSSING EAST OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ECMWF IS THE FASTEST BRING
THIS WAVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC BUT OTHER MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY
TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY WHEN THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO
THE EAST TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL MENTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. BASED HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY ON MAV
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A 594 DM UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RIDGE KEEPS WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES...AROUND
+20...OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE RIDGE RETROGRADES AND TROFFING SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
TUESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN CLOSER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN KTBN-KROA.
ANTICIPATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE IN THIS SAME AREA. CONFIDENCE IN PINPOINTING
WHEN/IF ANY GIVEN CELL WILL CROSS A TERMAINAL SITE IS LOW. HAVE
TRIED TO REFLECT THIS WITH AN APPENDED...CB...SUFFIX AT THE END OF
THE CLOUD GROUP IN EACH TAF. WHEN/IF CONFIDENCE OF ARRIVAL OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA AT ANY TAF SITE INCREASES...AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED.

OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO WANE...BUT PERHAPS SLOWER THAN
WHAT WAS REALIZED WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE APPORACH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER KENTUCKY MAY HELP THE PRECIPITATION LAST LONGER.
ANOTHER BOUT OF MORNING PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATE IN THE MOUNTAIN
AND RIVER VALLEYS...AND AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS TODAY.

THROUGH MIDDAY ON THURSDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HAVE AGAIN APPENDED...CB...TO CLOUD GROUP IN THE
TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ARRIVAL.

SHRA/TSRA WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG...SOME DENSE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE RECEIVED SOME RAIN
FROM THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY MORNING FOG/STRATUS BURNS OFF WITH THE APPROACH OF DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED/SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION...AND MORNING FOG UNTIL SOILS HAVE A
CHANCE TO DRY OUT UNDER THE HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE THREAT IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
328 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-081100-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
328 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS.

ALSO...MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
516 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N CHARLOTTE COURT HOU 37.06N 78.64W
07/07/2011                   CHARLOTTE          VA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON WOODFORK ROAD JUST NORTH OF THE
            COMMUNITY OF CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE.

&&

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
552 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

VAZ044-072215-
PITTSYLVANIA VA-
552 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY...

AT 548 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DANVILLE
CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. EXPECT FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BLAIRS AROUND 615 PM.

LAT...LON 3670 7929 3657 7929 3659 7955 3673 7951

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
552 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

VAZ007-009-072230-
SMYTH VA-TAZEWELL VA-
552 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SMYTH AND TAZEWELL COUNTIES...

AT 548 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SALTVILLE...
MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. EXPECT FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BROADFORD AROUND 620 PM.

LAT...LON 3696 8181 3696 8179 3698 8179 3704 8166
      3688 8155 3682 8174 3683 8175 3694 8184

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
559 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

VAZ016-072230-
CARROLL VA-
559 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CARROLL COUNTY...

AT 557 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF GALAX CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT
STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR GALAX HILLSVILLE AIRPORT AROUND 620 PM AND
HILLSVILLE AROUND 630 PM.

LAT...LON 3682 8078 3672 8068 3663 8083 3673 8092

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