Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
516 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP SVR TSTM WATCH 594 FOR THE WRN CWA FROM
THE VA HIGHLANDS...SOUTH TO THE NC MTNS. BEST INSTABILITY HAS
SHIFTED EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. WILL STILL SEE SOME
HVY RAIN POTENTIAL OR SLOW MOVING SHOWERS...SO LEFT THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS. JUST MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR/LOCAL MODEL TRENDS...WITH HIGHEST POPS THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA. TEMPS ADJUSTED ALSO FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER
CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL RATE THE ARE
PRODUCING...THE RELATIVE SLOW SPEED OF THE STORMS...AND THE HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO PROGRESS OVER THE SAME AREA.
THERE THREE ELEMENTS TOGETHER ARE GOOD INDICATORS OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST THE DURATION OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THE WATCH CONCLUDES AT 1000 PM TO ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY RUNOFF FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THAT TIME. ANTICIPATING THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO END BY DUSK
WITH LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY.
ALSO...LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE HEIGHT
OF THE BASE OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

ON TUESDAY...MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF
FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT WILL HELP DRAG A
SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION...AND IT WILL STAY NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ANTICIPATE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BY MIDDAY...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. GREATER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START
OF THE DAY WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN THOSE
REALIZED TODAY. EXPECTED MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH READINGS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD TROF AT 500 MB REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND HAVE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BE
TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME...CHALLENGING TO NARROW
DOWN TIMING OF BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WITH THE FORECAST AREA
STAYING IN A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAYED CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND AN APPROACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS HELPING TO CREATE THIS
ACTIVITY. ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED AND
TEMPORARY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE STRONGER CELLS PASS OVER A
GIVEN AREA. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER ROUGHLY 00Z...800 PM AS WE LOSE THE
HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OUT OF THE AREA. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AFTER SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR LIGHT FOG AND CLOUDS...LOOK FOR
INSTABILITY INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TRSA
DEVELOPING BY 16Z...NOON.

ANTICIPATE DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION CONDENSES
UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
505 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

NCZ002>006-019-020-VAZ016-017-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-052115-
ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-CARROLL-
FLOYD-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
505 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE NOW ACTIVATED. PLEASE RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ001-018-VAZ007-009>015-018>020-WVZ042>045-052115-
ASHE-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
505 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
527 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE WINDY GAP         36.11N 80.97W
07/04/2011                   WILKES             NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN NEAR WINDY GAP ROAD.

&&

WHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
530 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE FERRUM            36.98N 79.99W
07/04/2011                   FRANKLIN           VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN THE 2500 BLOCK OF SIX MILE POST
            ROAD.

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W NORTHWEST SMITH MOU 37.18N 79.81W
07/04/2011                   FRANKLIN           VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN THE 6000 BLOCK OF TRUMAN HILL
            ROAD.

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE STEWARTSVILLE     37.27N 79.79W
07/04/2011                   BEDFORD            VA   PUBLIC

            SIX TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG JORDONTOWN ROAD NEAR HWY
            24.

&&

16

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