Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
846 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT
TRAILING INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO TEXAS.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING A FROM WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE SVR TSRA WATCH 333 FOR NOW. STORMS STILL PUTTING
DOWN HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE...BUT THREAT TRANSITIONG TO MORE
FLOODING...AS TRAINING TAKING PLACE FROM NW NC INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.

BUMPED UP POPS IN THE WEST EARLY TO CATEGORICAL...THEN START TO
TRANSITION TOWARD SCT LATER IN THE EAST. THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF
KEEP THIS ACTIVITY TOGETHER AS IT MOVES EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE IN ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. COMBINED WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. TRENDED
LOWS TOWARD THE MILDER MET GUIDANCE.

A SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS NOT AS CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SOLUTION. STILL KEPT CHANCE PROBABILITY IN FOR MUCH OF DAY.
WITH WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSE TO WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
BUT HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS AND RAIN THERE IS IN THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE TO MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS THE
FOCUS FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT MORE
TOWARDS OH/PA BY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE PROJECTED PATHS OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING THROUGH THE OVERALL GENERAL LONGWAVE
TROUGH PATTERN OVER CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANTICIPATE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TWO DISTINCT AND IMPORTANT TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE.
FIRST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BE EITHER DIRECTLY OVER OUR
REGION...OR JUST TO OUR WEST. EITHER PATTERN TRANSLATES TO STRONG
DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT A GENEROUS
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
REGION...BUT NOT REALLY HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN OUR AIR MASS
IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND...AND POTENTIALLY MORE INTENSE...SYSTEM WILL
TAKE AIM ON THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND BEST TRACK OF THE MOISTURE...BUT THIS TOO
MAY BE A PERIOD OF VERY ACTIVE AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER. WE
WILL ALSO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD. MULTIPLE DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY WARRANT WATCHES LATER IN THE
WEEK THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE GROUND SATURATES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AVIATION CONCERNS THIS EVENING WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BLF/LWB CORRIODR WHERE A GOOD COVERAGE EXISTS...SO WILL
TEMPO FOR THUNDER THERE EARLY THIS EVENIN BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER 03Z. FURTHER EAST BCB/ROA COULD SEE SOME THUNDER AS WELL AND
EVEN INTO LYH/DAN. WILL GO CONSERVATIVE ON PREDOMINANT WX AND KEEP
CB OR VCTS IN THE TAFS.

WITH THESE STORMS...VSBYS SHOULD DROP AS LOW AS IFR AND EVEN
LOWER.

OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OR DISSIPATE...LEAVING
BEHIND VFR EXPECT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. FOR NOW SEEMS
LWB/BCB HAS THE BEST THREAT OF MVFR TO IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...THINGS SHOULD BE VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
MON AFTN SO WILL HAVE CB BACK IN ALL TAF SITES.

MODELS WERE IN LESS AGREEMENT WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
SOME SUGGEST THERE MAY BE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SOLUTION HAS MORE
STORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO PUT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDER IN
THE TAFS.

BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MTNS...MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
558 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

NCZ001-002-018-019-VAZ007-009>013-015-016-WVZ042>045-232200-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-
PULASKI-GRAYSON-CARROLL-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
558 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ003>006-020-VAZ014-017>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-232200-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
558 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR INTO THIS
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE GREATEST CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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