Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
615 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
OCCURRING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE
WEAKENED AS THEY MADE IT INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS STRONGLY LIMITED SURFACE HEATING.
BELIEVE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION...AND INTO THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING...WHERE ONLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THIS AREA HAS HAD SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THE PAST TWO DAYS AND
SOME AREAS HAVE HAD HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN ALONG THE FRONT WAS 1.2
TO 1.8 INCHES. ESPECIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE AREA FROM WYTHE
COUNTY DOWN TO CARROLL AND GRAYSON COUNTIES...TO ALLEGHANY COUNTY NORTH
CAROLINA THAT HAD HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. SO A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

ONCE THESE STORMS SUBSIDE...THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
MODELS AGAIN WANT TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND
ARE CALLING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. DO NOT SEE
ANY MECHANISM WHICH WILL CARRY THAT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...AND
WILL GO ABOVE FORECAST GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS THE
STATIONARY FRONT HOLDS IN PLACE AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  UPPER TROF OVER THE
MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCHES CLOSER AND BEGINS TO CUT-OFF.
SINCE WE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROF...EXPECT DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE TO BE FUNNELED NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...FUELING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  PWATS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1.5 INCHES...SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE DEEPER
MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED TO THE EAST...HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD AND CUT-OFF...LEAVING THE AREA UNDERNEATH A SPIRALING
CLOUD FIELD WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CRYSTAL BALL LOOKS MARKEDLY CLOUDY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. OMEGA
BLOCK OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BECOME A REX BLOCK WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS
JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY NORTH OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
CONUS...THE STACKED LOW THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DUMP ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES INTO
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF TIME WHERE THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BECOME HIGHER DURING THE 4 DAY PERIOD.  ATTM IT APPEARS
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIP AND HIGHEST QPF WILL BE EARLY IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN THE LOW IS PRACTICALLY
OVHD...THEN A DECREASING TREND AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND DRIFTS
SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...THEN BEGIN THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER NUMBERS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ROA...DAN...BCB...AND
LWB THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING TOWARD BLF LATER THIS EVENING. MAIN THREATS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1SM MILE FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF TIME. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO IFR AGAIN
TOWARD THE SUNRISE HOURS OF FRIDAY...WITH FOG SETTING IN SOME
AREAS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PROLONG THE LOWER VISIBILITIES AND LOW
CEILINGS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

EXPECT A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
AS WELL AS PROLONGED PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS...FOR OUR
REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-
     009>017-032-033-043.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>005-
     018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ042>044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF/PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
308 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024-WVZ042>045-131915-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
308 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS IN
VIRGINIA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN...IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015>017-032>035-043>047-058-059-131915-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
308 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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