Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
553 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING...BUT STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED HOURLY POPS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TREND. SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS...HOWEVER CURRENT SEVERE TREND IS ISOLATED TO
A FEW STORMS. DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S AS GUST FRONT APPROACHES. WILL WAIT A
LITTLE LONGER BEFORE DROPPING ANY COUNTIES FROM WATCH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. SEE WEB PAGE FOR DETAILS OR VIEW WCNRNK FOR COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SATURATED WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWN POURS IN
STRONGER STORMS INTO THIS EVENING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP INCREASE INSTABILITIES WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IF ANY CELLS DEVELOP ROTATION...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DIME SIZE OR SMALLER HAIL AS FREEZING LEVEL
IS RELATIVELY HIGH. BY MIDNIGHT THE SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED
NORTH OF THE AREA...DECREASING THE CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS OVER
THE REGION. INSTABILITIES REMAIN OVERNIGHT FOR A STRAY SHOWER AND
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH
A COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS THE OHIO/TENN VALLEY. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH EVENING ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONTS SQUALL LINE. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AFTERNOON HEATING AND LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM
MORNING SHOWERS WILL IGNITE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. JUST LIKE TODAY...A FEW OF THESE PREFRONTAL SHOWERS COULD
BECOME STRONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WILL
BE A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WIND FIELDS...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF 50+
KNOTS AT 850 MBS...AND SOME VEERING IN THE PROFILE...WILL SUPPORT
AT LEAST LINEAR MULTICELL TYPE THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY A SQUALL
LINE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED TORNADOES. THE ENTIRE AREA
IS IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA- WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO. CHC FOR DAMAGING WINDS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE WEATHER
GRIDS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...PWATS WILL BE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
SRN ATLANTIC. THESE TSTORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THINKING
IS THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS A THREAT THAT CONVECTION
COULD END UP PROGRESSING MORE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED....AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CLEAR
PRECIP OUT IN THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT WESTERN SLOPES AREAS. COLD
AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH A DOWNSLOPE WEST WIND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...I HAVE RAISED HIGHS CLOSER TO 80 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT. PRESSURE RISES ARE FAIRLY STRONG THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...ON THE ORDER OF 6 MBS IN 6 HOURS...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
JET IS 40 KNOTS OR LESS...SO WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COLD ADVECTION WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
THIRSDAY WILL MAKE LOWS FEEL COLD...WITH VALUES FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EAST. FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE MTNS...TO LOWER 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP TROUGH IS EXITING THE EAST COAST...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TIMING LOOKS
GOOD FOR A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...SO I KEPT
LOW TEMPS COOLER THAN HPC GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS
WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME UPPER 30S. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...AND WITH WARM ADVECTION INTO THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHS IN THE SW MTNS OF VA INTO THE BLUEFIELD AREA MAY
BE JUST AS WARM AS THE SW VA AND NW NC PIEDMONT.

ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE MOVG EASTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HPC IS LEANING TOWARD
THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION
CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE WRN ATLANTIC SOON ENOUGH THAT A BACK
DOOR FRONT MAY BRING COOLER AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO HPC TEMPS AND
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
MOVG TROUGH REACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...EVEN IN THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH HPC POPS FOR THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THEN IN
HAVING MORE SRN STREAM ENERGY DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY
AND SLOW IT DOWN WHILE IT IS OVER ERN VA AND NC...SO HAVE KEPT CHC
POPS ACROSS THE ERN CWA TUESDAY...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPARKED SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE NW NC MOUNTAINS/NEW RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS
PATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY/ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS (LWB/HSP) THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT (DAN/LYH) THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE.

THERE ARE VARIETY OF CLOUDS AND CEILING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MVFR-LOW END VFR WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN COVERAGE. MOST CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
LOWER DURING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL REACH 20-25 KTS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES LATER TODAY...STORMS
WILL RE-DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS...POTENTIALLY DOWN TO THE IFR
CATEGORY LEVEL...AND PATCHY FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THESE SHOWERS
WILL WANE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER.
WEDNESDAY COULD BE A SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WITH A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KTS AT 850 MB JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE CROSSING OUR
REGION. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STEEP LAPSE RATE SHOWERS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJ/PH
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...PH/RCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
215 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

NCZ004>006-VAZ022-032>035-043>047-058-059-271815-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-ROANOKE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
215 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 214 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS WHICH MAY RESULT IN
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ007-009>020-023-024-WVZ042>045-271815-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-GREENBRIER-
215 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 214 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ001>003-018>020-271815-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-
215 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

RCS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
519 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

VAZ024-034-035-262200-
AMHERST VA-BEDFORD VA-ROCKBRIDGE VA-
519 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AMHERST...BEDFORD AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTIES...

AT 516 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BIG ISLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR FORKS OF BUFFALO AROUND 530 PM...ALTO AROUND
535 PM...LOWESVILLE AROUND 540 PM AND VESUVIUS AROUND 550 PM.

LAT...LON 3787 7914 3782 7916 3777 7906 3772 7906
      3770 7899 3764 7895 3746 7922 3745 7925
      3745 7926 3743 7927 3754 7946 3793 7920

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
526 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             3 NNE SHAWSVILLE        37.21N 80.25W
04/26/2011  E0.50 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL.

&&

WHP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
546 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

NCZ002-003-019-262230-
ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY NC-WILKES NC-
546 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALLEGHANY...SURRY AND WILKES
COUNTIES...

AT 542 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF
TRAPHILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MOUNTAIN PARK AROUND 600 PM AND BOTTOM AROUND
615 PM.

LAT...LON 3626 8117 3656 8096 3656 8055 3619 8100

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
551 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE BOTTOM            36.53N 80.75W
04/26/2011                   SURRY              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES ON A HOUSE ALONG MAPLE GROVE CHURCH ROAD.

&&

WHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
555 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

VAZ016-017-032-262300-
CARROLL VA-FLOYD VA-PATRICK VA-
555 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CARROLL...FLOYD AND PATRICK
COUNTIES...

AT 551 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
ARARAT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MABRY MILL AROUND 605 PM...ROCKY KNOB SUMMIT
AROUND 615 PM...WOOLWINE AROUND 620 PM...CHARITY AROUND 625 PM AND
FLOYD AROUND 630 PM.

LAT...LON 3661 8054 3672 8060 3698 8031 3690 8020
      3687 8023 3685 8012

16