Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1000 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE MONDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WW# 107 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR THE WESTERN CWA. CAPE IS WANING...600 J/KG AT 9PM
COMPARED TO THE 1000 J/KG EARLIER. HAD TO DELAY THE RELEASE OF THE
RNK UPPER AIR BY AN HOUR DUE TO A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WX
STATION. MAIN CONVERGENCE STILL FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN CWA WHERE
WESTERLY LLJ IS INTERSECTING SFC BOUNDARY WHICH RUNS FROM SE-NW
ALONG A GSO-BLF-JKL LINE. 0-3KM SR-HELICITY IS NEAR 400...AND
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL STORMS THIS
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
PULASKI AND ALONG INTERSTATE 81 AT THE DRAPER INTERCHANGE...EXIT 92.
SEVERAL HOMES HAVE BEEN DESTROYED...INCLUDING THE BP GAS STATION
AT EXIT 92. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF MINOR INJURIES...SEARCH
AND RESCUE IS STILL ONGOING. A SHELTER HAS BEEN SET UP AT THE
PULASKI ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND THREAT INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-77 WHERE CONVERGENCE OF HIGH THETA E AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...COOL AIR WITH SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE PASSES...THE WEDGE REALLY GETS LOCKED IN AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT INTESIFIES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS.

FOR SATURDAY STRONG WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY. I
HAVE GONE VERY CLOSE TO THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW VA PIEDMONT WHERE THE WEDGE MAY HOLD
ALL DAY LONG. I BRING SCT TSTMS INTO THE FAR WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON- LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MAY HELP ORGANIZE STORMS
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...BUT THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD BE WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WHATEVER SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE MORE UNSTABLE
AIR...SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE WEAK SW-NE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH. EXPECT SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
ON SUNDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND DEEPENING
CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COMBINE TO BRING STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING WEDGE EVEN ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS H85 TEMPS JUMP INTO THE
+12 TO +16 RANGE. GUIDANCE AND THICKNESS TOOLS YIELDING HIGHS INTO
THE LOW 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH FULL SUN. EVEN IF
CLOUDS BREAK UP A LITTLE LATER TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE A RAPID
WARMUP WITH DAYTIME MIXING. MILD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW AND TEMPS MAINLY 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY ACTIVE SPRINGTIME PATTERN TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM
COMES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACKS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD AND ALONG OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR
WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST SUNDAY. SPC
ALREADY HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR DAY 3 IN THIS AREA..AN INDICATION OF
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION LATER MONDAY ALTHOUGH CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
TIMING FOR THIS FROPA IS MAINLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY WHICH WOULD LESSEN
CHANCES FOR SEVERE...BUT 6 TO 12 HOURS EARLIER AND CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INCREASES
CONSIDERABLY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPS WITH MEX GUIDANCE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABV NORMAL..COMPROMISED WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER MET/MEH GUIDANCE GIVING
STILL MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST.

AFTER FRONT PASSES EARLY TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FROM
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABV CLIMO FOR
MID-APRIL..GENERALLY UPPER 60S WEST TO LOW 70S EAST. NEXT FRONT REACHES
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES. FOLLOWING HPC IN THE GRIDS
TO KEEP THAT FROPA JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BKN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG BACKDOOR COLD
COLD FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING...COVERAGE DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALL
TAF SITES SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT WITH
COOL STABLE CONDITIONS RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF STRATUS AND
FOG. THIS STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH MODELS INSISTING ON WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS AGAIN ALONG WHAT REMAINS
OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THIS
WILL BE IN THE WRN MTNS FOR THE MOST PART...AND MAY AFFECT
BLUEFIELD...BLACKSBURG AND LEWISBURG. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY...BRINGING A CHC OF LATE DAY TSTMS TO ALL
AREAS. VFR THEN RETURNS ACROSS THE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS AND A FEW -SHRA OVER SE WVA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/JJ
NEAR TERM...JH/JJ/PM
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
418 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ007-009>013-015-016-032-WVZ042-090830-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-
BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-GRAYSON-CARROLL-PATRICK-MERCER-
418 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ005-006-VAZ014-017>020-022>024-033>035-043>047-058-059-WVZ043>045-
090830-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
418 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1028 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW RED SULPHUR SPRIN 37.48N 80.78W
04/08/2011                   MONROE             WV   AIRPLANE PILOT

            PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM THE WARNING POINT OF NUMEROUS
            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN BALLARD. REPORTS OF
            TRAILERS OVERTURNED AS WELL. UPDATE...15 TO 20 STRUCTURES
            DAMAGED, SWATH OF NUMEROUS TREES DOWN, BUILDINGS LIFTED
            OFF FOUNDATIONS, AND TRAILER FLIPPED OVER THREE TIMES.

&&

CHENARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1052 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

VAZ032-033-043-044-090330-
FRANKLIN VA-HENRY VA-PATRICK VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
1052 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN...HENRY...PATRICK AND
PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES...

AT 1051 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM WOOLWINE
TO SYDNORSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND MAY CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR FAIRY STONE STATE PARK AROUND 1100 PM AND
SWANSONVILLE AROUND 1115 PM.

LAT...LON 3683 8034 3687 8024 3689 8022 3693 7986
      3667 7941 3660 7998

DS

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