Severe Thunderstorm Warning 544, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
548 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
LATE SUNDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM LEE WILL THEN RIDE UP THE FRONT AND
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 545 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REFLECT THOSE REGIONS WITH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. AFTER THAT
POINT...HAVE BLENDED IN TIME INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM THE
LATE EVENING AND ONWARD. HAVE ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY CONDTIONS TRENDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...

GOING TO SEE CONVECTION SCT FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLAND SOUTH INTO
THE VA/NC FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN WITH ISOLATED EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. SBCAPES ARE IN THE 3000+ RANGE WITH GOOD LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...HEATING WILL BE LOST AND WITHOUT ANY
UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD SEE ANY SHOWERS/STORMS END. WILL SEE SOME FOG
FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAME AREA
THAT GETS RAIN THIS AFTN.

LOWS WILL BE MUGGY WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

SAT...THE MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE STILL SITUATED ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPS BUT HEIGHTS ARE WEAKER. KEEPING
SIMILAR SITUATION AS TODAY WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MTNS BY
MIDDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY SHIFTING SWWD FROM NRN VA IN
THE MORNING SO WILL THROW IN ISOLATED POPS IN IN THE FAR NORTH
AROUND DAYBREAK/MID MORNING.

AGAIN...TEMPS WILL BE HOT AND LOOKING AT UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MOST
LOCATIONS. APPEARS BEST CONVERGENCE/LOW LVL THETA-E RESIDES ACROSS
THE WRN CWA TOMORROW AFTN AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...

LEFTOVER MAINLY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION SHOULD FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SAT EVENING GIVEN LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT BUT STILL MAY BE A FEW TSRA
AROUND THRU MIDNIGHT PER PROGGED INSTABILITY. OTRW PC AND MUGGY SAT
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

STRONG 5H TROF TO THE NW WILL GRADUALLY PROPEL THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWING UP IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHWARD MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS MAY
CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE WESTERN SLOPE AREAS AND POINTS WEST
THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM PER S/W RIDGING TO THE
NE OF THE TROPICAL LOW. THIS WOULD SUPPORT STICKING WITH MAINLY
CHANCE POPS WEST AND MOSTLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OUT EAST WHERE MAY
STAY DRY FOR THE MOST PART. GIVEN A BIT SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION
AND SW FLOW WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS ESPCLY EAST WHERE MORE
SUN SUPPORTS HIGHS AROUND 90 OR SO.

SURFACE FRONT SHOULD WORK TO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES BY EARLY
MONDAY BEFORE SINKING SE ACROSS THE CWA DURING MONDAY. THUS EXPECT
MAIN CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS TO EDGE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE REGION ESPCLY
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS
STILL QUITE IFFY WITH JUST HOW FAST AND FAR NORTH THE REMNANT
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL GET AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROFFINESS.
THIS COULD HOLD UP THE BOUNDARY EVEN MORE...KEEPING THE MORE SIG
SHRA TO THE WEST THRU MONDAY WITH RAINFALL MORE THE RESULT OF
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE SW WITH A SE TRAJECTORY TAKING SHAPE BY LATE
MONDAY PER THE GFS. HOWEVER THINK ENOUGH POTENTIAL...AT LEAST FROM
THE FRONT TO PUSH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ON MONDAY BUT COULD ZOOM UP OUT EAST IF
CLOUDS/SHRA END UP BEING SLOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED IN REGARDS TO EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF GULF TROPICAL SYSTEM AND INTERACTION WITH RESIDUAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CAROLINAS. LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH/NE WITH TRACK OF REMNANT TROPICAL LOW...AND/OR ITS
INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROFFINESS CAUSING A CUTOFF LOW
JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DEEP TROPICAL S/SE FLOW ACROSS THE
LEFTOVER FRONT RESULTING IN BOUTS OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ESPCLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEPER CORE OF MOISTURE SLIDES NE
WELL AHEAD OF THE GULF STATES DEPRESSION. HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
MORE OF A EASTWARD TRACK TO THE GULF LOW POSSIBLY ALLOWING MORE DRY
AIR TO SINK SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BEST OVERRUNNING TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW APPEARS A COMPROMISE OF BOTH SCENARIOS LIKELY BEST
WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING HOW FAR NE THE DEEPER TROPICAL RH MAKES
IT AND EXACTLY WHERE THE 85H FRONT ENDS UP TO LIKELY SERVE AS THE
TRAIN TRACK FOR HEAVY RAIN HEADING NE. IF THIS ENDS UP BEING FARTHER
WEST WHICH HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE PAST...THEN COULD SEE CORRIDOR OF
BEST RAIN STAY ALONG THE RIDGES OR JUST WEST SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
OTRW SINCE WILL HAVE VERY HIGH PWATS AND A POSSIBLE PROLONGED
EVENT...PLAN TO MENTION IN THE HWO OVER THE WEST FOR NOW.

THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER HPC POPS ESPCLY MON NGT INTO WED
BUT HOLD BACK ON CATEGORIAL FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND TO AVOID
FLIP FLOPPING TO SOME DEGREE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WEDGE SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AS ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARRIVE LATE WITH A POSSIBLE CAD EVENT TUE/WED UNDER
OVERRUNNING PRECIP. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S TUE/WED AND PERHAPS ONLY UPPER 50S IN SPOTS PENDING
RAINFALL/WEDGE. EXPECT LIFT TO GET MORE STRETCHED OUT LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH MORE FOCUS WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW...AND IN LEFTOVER DEEP RH NORTHEAST OF THE REMNANT SFC FEATURE
LEADING TO MORE SCATTERED NATURE SHRA WITH CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT
THRU FRIDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER IF RIDGING BETWEEN KATIA OFFSHORE AND
THE UPPER INLAND SYSTEM PUSHES WEST A BIT THEN SHRA WILL BE QUITE A
BIT LESS BY THU/FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER A BIT AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS THU AND FRIDAY BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE 70S BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTN BUT PINPOINTING WHO
WILL BE AFFECTED TAF WISE IS HARD. ATTM...APPEARS THE
ROANOKE/BLACKSBURG SITES STAND THE BEST CHANCE...BUT STILL NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TS IN THE TAFS...BUT EXPECT TS IN VICINITY
SO STILL HAVE IT IN. REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL HAVE CB LATER THIS AFTN.

CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AFTER 00Z THOUGH COULD SEE SOME LINGER
LONGER SOUTH OF A ROA/BCB INTO THE NC MTNS...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON
THIS IN TERMS OF KEEPING IT IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT THINKING WITH HUMID
AIRMASS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...WILL SEE SOME FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT AT MOST IF NOT ALL TAF SITES. BCB/LWB IS STILL LOOKING
LIKE TYPICAL LIFR CONDITIONS TOWARD MORNING. AGAIN WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF SHOWERS/TSRA THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

MORE SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAY THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONT SLOWLY SLIDING THROUGH...OR POSSIBLY STALLING OVER...THE
AREA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NE FROM
THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF DURING THIS TIME WHICH COULD BRING SUB VFR
AND RAINY CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/JJ
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JJ/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
240 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>045-031845-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-
GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
240 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MAY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF PROLONGED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ004>006-VAZ043>047-058-059-031845-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-
BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
240 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
613 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W SALEM CITY          37.29N 80.09W
09/02/2011                   CITY OF SALEM      VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PART OF LARGE SIGN BLOWN OUT BY THE WIND. ALSO HAD DIME
            SIZED HAIL.

&&

WHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
623 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N KING                36.32N 80.35W
09/02/2011                   STOKES             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON CHESTNUT GROVE ROAD AND YMCA CAMP ROAD.

&&

SK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
626 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW FRANCISCO         36.48N 80.40W
09/02/2011                   STOKES             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ONTO POWER LINE.

&&

WHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
628 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

VAZ019-020-WVZ045-022330-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH VA-GREENBRIER WV-
628 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALLEGHANY...BATH AND GREENBRIER
COUNTIES...

AT 623 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF HOT
SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR DOUTHAT STATE PARK AROUND 640 PM...CARLOOVER
AROUND 645 PM...NATURAL WELL AROUND 655 PM...NEOLA AROUND 700
PM...CLIFTON FORGE CITY AROUND 705 PM...AND HOLLINS AROUND 715 PM.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

LAT...LON 3801 7975 3779 7983 3775 7987 3772 7990
      3781 8037 3807 8008 3807 8000

AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
637 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

VAZ007-009-010-012-022330-
BLAND VA-SMYTH VA-TAZEWELL VA-WYTHE VA-
637 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BLAND...SMYTH...TAZEWELL AND
WYTHE COUNTIES...

AT 636 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WYTHEVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR FAVONIA AROUND 645 PM...ASBERRYS AROUND 650
PM...NEBO AROUND 705 PM...CROCKETT AROUND 710 PM...MARION AND
WYTHEVILLE AROUND 715 PM AND SPEEDWELL AROUND 725 PM.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

LAT...LON 3723 8153 3725 8124 3724 8122 3725 8120
      3726 8099 3725 8098 3686 8105 3676 8125
      3674 8139 3671 8147 3671 8153 3669 8154
      3667 8165

AMS