Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Blacksburg, VA

157 
WWUS51 KRNK 181851
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
251 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCC005-009-189-193-181945-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0302.000000T0000Z-110618T1945Z/
ALLEGHANY NC-ASHE NC-WATAUGA NC-WILKES NC-
251 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR ALLEGHANY...EASTERN ASHE...SOUTHEASTERN WATAUGA AND WILKES
COUNTIES...

AT 247 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS 
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF WILSON...
TO JEFFERSON...TO GLENDALE SPRINGS...TO NEAR DEEP GAP AND BLOWING 
ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OTHELLO...
  GLENDALE SPRINGS...
  SUMMIT...
  WILKESBORO RESERVOIR...
  TWIN OAKS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3607 8142 3609 8152 3611 8155 3611 8164
      3613 8167 3621 8160 3633 8154 3646 8148
      3658 8149 3656 8097 3603 8111 3602 8125
      3599 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 242DEG 38KT 3658 8138 3647 8137
          3636 8143 3623 8149 3614 8156

$$

WERT

113 
WWUS51 KRNK 181909
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
309 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCC009-189-181918-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0302.000000T0000Z-110618T1945Z/
ASHE NC-WATAUGA NC-
309 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN ASHE AND SOUTHEASTERN
WATAUGA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 3599 8133 3607 8142 3610 8151 3629 8137
      3637 8133 3636 8127 3637 8124 3645 8127
      3648 8132 3657 8135 3656 8097 3604 8110
      3602 8125
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 282DEG 54KT 3651 8114 3640 8113
          3629 8120 3616 8126 3607 8133

$$

NCC005-193-181945-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0302.000000T0000Z-110618T1945Z/
ALLEGHANY NC-WILKES NC-
309 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR ALLEGHANY AND WESTERN WILKES COUNTIES...

AT 304 PM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 
MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
STRATFORD...TO DOUGHTON PARK..TO MC GRADY...TO MAPLE SPRINGS...TO 
ELKVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MILLERS CREEK...
  ENNICE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 8133 3607 8142 3610 8151 3629 8137
      3637 8133 3636 8127 3637 8124 3645 8127
      3648 8132 3657 8135 3656 8097 3604 8110
      3602 8125
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 282DEG 54KT 3651 8114 3640 8113
          3629 8120 3616 8126 3607 8133

$$

WERT

587 
WWUS51 KRNK 181930
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
330 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCC005-193-181940-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0302.000000T0000Z-110618T1945Z/
ALLEGHANY NC-WILKES NC-
330 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...THE ORIGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ALLEGHANY AND 
WESTERN WILKES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE ORIGINAL WARNING 
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE POLYGON AREA AND THE ORIGINAL SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED. 

A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED A BIT FURTHER TO 
THE EAST...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT...FOR EASTERN 
ALLEGHANY COUNTY...YADKIN COUNTY...SURRY COUNTY...AND WILKES 
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. 

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1 8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

LAT...LON 3599 8133 3607 8142 3610 8151 3629 8137
      3637 8133 3636 8127 3637 8124 3645 8127
      3648 8132 3657 8135 3656 8097 3604 8110
      3602 8125
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 282DEG 54KT 3646 8087 3635 8086
          3624 8093 3611 8099 3602 8106

$$

WERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1239 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS STRETCHED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVES COMING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MIDWEST UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE GENERATING MESOSCALE COMPLEXES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. CORFIDI VECTORS AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAS
THESE MCS TRACKING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. MCS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF RNK CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OUTFLOW
FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INSTABILITIES ARE THE GREATEST AND
CLOSEST TO THE MCS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ONE LIMITING FACTOR TO WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
IS A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE VA/NC COASTAL PIEDMONT. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE REFLECTION WILL FORM ALONG THIS
TROUGH WITH THE CENTER IN NORTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION
ALONG THIS TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE WITH ORGANIZED
STORMS...THIS MAY LEAVE OUR STORMS DISORGANIZED AND SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THICK CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING IS MOVING EAST. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE L/M 80 WEST AND U80S/L90
EAST. ONCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 70S WITH DEW POINT REMAINING IN THE 60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREA RADARS SHOWED A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER IN ENTERING NORTHERN
VIRGINIA. EXPECT THAT IF THESE AREAS OF RAIN HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH THEY MAY REACH THE FAR SOUTHWEST OR EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BEFORE 12Z/8AM. OTHERWISE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF WERE NOT
SHOWING ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AROUND 19Z/3PM. MODELS
WERE SHOWING A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY
TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
BY THIS EVENING. HAVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN AROUND
00Z/8PM...BUT CHALLENGING TO NARROW DOWN WHERE AND WHEN THERE MAY
BE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STARTING OUT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST THIS MORNING.
STAYED CLOSE TO LATEST LAV GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND USED A
BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS FOR THE SHRT RANGE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
STORMS MONDAY AND THE INCOMING HEAT INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SIGNAL AN MCS OR REMNANTS OF AFFECTING THE SW HALF OF THE CWA
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THIS...CORFIDI VECTORS ARE NOT
CONSISTENTLY FAVORABLE FROM THE NW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WILL KEEP
POPS RATHER HIGH HERE SINCE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POINTING AT THIS
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERAL RUNS. THE OTHER BIG CHANGE WAS A FEW SHRTWVS
DUMPING INTO THE LEE TROUGH...TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY SITUATED TO OUR
NORTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BACK IN OUR DIRECTION AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY. A WARM AND BREEZY DAY SHOULD FOLLOW. THIS REGIME
HAS PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER DAYS IN THE PAST...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SEEM FAVORABLE FOR THIS PATTERN TO COME TO FRUITION. THE
COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR IS MORE FAVORABLE LATE MONDAY THAN
ANY OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WHICH HAVE PRODUCED SPOTTY AT BEST
COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS YET TO HIGHLIGHT OUR AREA WILL REMARK
IN HWO ABOUT ENHANCED THREAT FOR MONDAY. THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
MAY KEEP SHWS AND STORMS MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO
WILL JUST KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR THOSE PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
NOW. BY TUESDAY...WITH THE MIDWEST RIDGE AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL PUMP UP IN RESPONSE...SHOVING H85
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE STILL EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MCS TO TRACK ALONG THE EDGE
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. LATER...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE
ANTICIPATED AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WERE KEPT IN PLACE DUE TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE FROM DAYTIME HEATING. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE A
GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA RADARS WERE NOT SHOWING ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE 12Z START OF THE TAF. MODELS WERE NOT
SHOWING ANY CONSISTENT TRENDS TOWARD ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. HAVE CB IN FOR CLOUDS DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS. ANY MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT WILL
DEPEND ON WHICH LOCATIONS GET RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CHANCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY AS A MORE WELL DEFINED
SHORT WAVE TRACKS TOWARD THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE
ISOLATED AND OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...DS/PW
AVIATION...AMS/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
553 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>045-191000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-
GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
553 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ004>006-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-191000-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
553 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
156 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCZ001-018-019-VAZ007-009-010-012-015-181845-
ASHE NC-BLAND VA-GRAYSON VA-SMYTH VA-TAZEWELL VA-WATAUGA NC-WILKES NC-
WYTHE VA-
156 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
SOUTH INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 152 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM RICHLANDS
TO 8 MILES NORTH OF ABINGDON TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEECH
MOUNTAIN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE OUT ON
THE WATER GET BACK TO LAND AND FIND A SAFE BUILDING OR SAFE VEHICLE.

LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE TAZEWELL...MARION...MOUNT
ROGERS...CRESTON AND BEECH MOUNTAIN THROUGH 245 PM.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG BY CALLING
1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3634 8185 3635 8173 3641 8175 3657 8170
      3663 8161 3692 8184 3698 8179 3710 8189
      3719 8183 3722 8175 3723 8170 3721 8156
      3723 8151 3694 8114 3659 8138 3606 8140
      3611 8155 3611 8181 3623 8192 3629 8192

WP