Severe Thunderstorm Warning 278, NWS Blacksburg, VA

474 
WWUS51 KRNK 112027
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
427 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

VAC009-163-530-112115-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0278.000000T0000Z-110611T2115Z/
ROCKBRIDGE VA-CITY OF BUENA VISTA VA-AMHERST VA-
427 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR THE CITY OF BUENA VISTA... SOUTHEASTERN ROCKBRIDGE AND AMHERST
COUNTIES...

AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR FORKS OF BUFFALO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FORKS OF BUFFALO...
  LOWESVILLE...
  CLIFFORD...
  NEW GLASGOW...
  RIVERVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 7909 3777 7906 3772 7906 3770 7898
      3756 7890 3755 7887 3749 7892 3750 7894
      3744 7901 3757 7937 3761 7940 3760 7943
      3762 7944 3759 7946 3761 7950 3785 7938
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 285DEG 24KT 3769 7916

$$

197 
WWUS51 KRNK 112043
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

VAC163-530-112054-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0278.000000T0000Z-110611T2115Z/
ROCKBRIDGE VA-CITY OF BUENA VISTA VA-
443 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE CITY OF BUENA VISTA...
SOUTHEASTERN ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 3777 7906 3772 7906 3770 7898 3754 7888
      3750 7894 3763 7932 3781 7923 3779 7920
      3781 7917
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 285DEG 24KT 3771 7907

$$

VAC009-112115-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0278.000000T0000Z-110611T2115Z/
AMHERST VA-
443 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN AMHERST COUNTY...

AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LOWESVILLE...OR NEAR CLIFFORD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LOWESVILLE...
  CLIFFORD...
  NEW GLASGOW...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3777 7906 3772 7906 3770 7898 3754 7888
      3750 7894 3763 7932 3781 7923 3779 7920
      3781 7917
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 285DEG 24KT 3771 7907

$$

842 
WWUS51 KRNK 112055
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
455 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

VAC009-112106-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0278.000000T0000Z-110611T2115Z/
AMHERST VA-
455 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN AMHERST COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND
EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1 8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

LAT...LON 3777 7906 3772 7906 3770 7898 3754 7888
      3750 7894 3763 7932 3781 7923 3779 7920
      3781 7917
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 285DEG 24KT 3769 7897

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
337 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
DRIER AIR ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE AN UPPER VORT
MOVING ACROSS THE WV MTNS INTO NRN VA THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD
TOUCH OFF MORE STORMS IN THE NRN CWA...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF
CONVERGENCE AND HIGH INSTABILITY KEEPS CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS FAR SW VA INTO NW NC.

THE SFC FRONT ACROSS THIS AFTN WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SEWD TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

FOR NOW WILL SEE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THIS AFTN THEN SHIFTING WEST LATE AFTN TIL MIDNIGHT. WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND UPPER SUPPORT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL KEEPING SHOWERS/TSRA GOING INTO LATE
NIGHT IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 60S FOR LOWS.

SUNDAY...LEANING TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WILL SEE THE FRONT SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA AND BE EAST OF US BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
SHOULD FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF IT
IN THE MORNING OVER THE MTNS AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE
AFTN BEFORE DRIER/STABLE AIR ARRIVE.

WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND MIXED IN WITH SOME SUNSHINE...WENT
WITH A LITTLE COOLER ON HIGHS THAN MAV MOS...WITH LOWER 80S MTNS
TO NEAR 90 OUT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT STAYS SOUTHEAST OF US. LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE
SWD INTO THE AREA THIS PERIOD WITH LESS HUMID AIR.

SHOULD SEE LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE 40S IN THE MTNS...WITH
50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE OVER THE NE TUE NIGHT-WED WITH A
TROF OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL BE PROVIDING SOME COOLER WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 00Z ECWMF/06Z GFS SEEM OUT OF PHASE MOST OF
THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY 12Z/8AM THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PROGRESSING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS TIME
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN...WITH SFC HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST
RETURNING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL 5H PATTERN STAYS FASTER THIS PERIOD AND FLATTER SO TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABOUT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY THEN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
BY SAT.

THIS FRONT IS FORECAST BY HPC TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA SAT. THIS
LINES UP WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS IT SOUTH.
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HOLD ONTO POPS FROM WED LATE AFTN THRU SAT
WITH BEST CHANCE THU-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KBCB AWOS IS NOT TRANSMITTING DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE THURSDAY
EVENING. WILL USE AMEND NOT SKED IN THE TAF UNTIL COMMS IS RE-
ESTABLISHED.

WATCHING CONVECTION THIS AFTN AFFECTING THE ROANOKE TERMINAL FOR
TIL 19Z...WITH MOST AIRPORTS STAYING FREE OF TSRA FOR NOW...AND
DUE TO THE WIDELY SCT NATURE...WILL ONLY HAVE A TEMPO GROUP IN AT
LYH/DAN OR VCTS. HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS SE WV EAST TO THE NRV EARLY THEN MORE CONVECTION FIRING BY
LATE AFTN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RADAR FOR ANY AMENDMENTS...BUT
POTENTIAL IS HIGH FOR TSRA TO AFFECT THE 15 MILE TERMINAL AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

ATTM...OVERNIGHT LOOKS QUIET WITH CONVECTION WANING BY MIDNIGHT.
WILL SEE SOME FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS
THIS AFTN/EVENING. FOR THIS HAVE FOG AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
BLF/ROA.

THE FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD TURN THE WIND
FLOW MORE NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME DRYING. AS
SUCH...SHOULD SEE A LULL IN SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW WITH MOISTURE COMING
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RENEW POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS/WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...PM/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
340 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-120745-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
340 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 200 PM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
312 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

VAZ024-034-035-111945-
AMHERST VA-BEDFORD VA-ROCKBRIDGE VA-
312 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AMHERST...BEDFORD AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTIES...

AT 309 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
GLASGOW...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR GLASGOW AROUND 340 PM AND SNOWDEN AROUND 345
PM.

LAT...LON 3771 7925 3750 7931 3759 7958 3763 7963
      3774 7958

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
314 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             5 ESE FRIES             36.69N 80.88W
06/11/2011  E1.00 INCH       CITY OF GALAX      VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
318 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

VAZ033-111945-
FRANKLIN VA-
318 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 317 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BOONES MILL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3709 7984 3711 7997 3714 7996 3715 7994
      3717 7991 3718 7991 3719 7989 3720 7986

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
324 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     HAIL             4 NE BOONES MILL        37.15N 79.89W
06/11/2011  E0.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
408 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             PIPERS GAP              36.65N 80.83W
06/11/2011  E1.00 INCH       CARROLL            VA   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            REPORT RELAYED THROUGH THE CARROLL COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE
            FROM A GAME WARDEN WHO WAS IN THE AREA.

&&

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
410 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

NCZ003-004-112115-
STOKES NC-SURRY NC-
410 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT STOKES AND SURRY COUNTIES...

AT 408 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF DOBSON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR SILOAM AROUND 425 PM...PILOT MOUNTAIN AROUND
435 PM...PINNACLE AROUND 455 PM...KING AROUND 510 PM AND HANGING ROCK
STATE PARK AROUND 515 PM.

LAT...LON 3626 8047 3626 8053 3628 8054 3627 8059
      3629 8063 3627 8063 3632 8087 3646 8080
      3643 8015 3625 8027 3626 8044 3624 8045