Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Blacksburg, VA

725 
WWUS51 KRNK 222313
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
713 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

NCC009-189-193-230000-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-110523T0000Z/
ASHE NC-WATAUGA NC-WILKES NC-
713 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WILKES...WATAUGA AND ASHE COUNTIES...

AT 711 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TODD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TODD...
  BALDWIN...
  WEST JEFFERSON...
  OTHELLO...
  WAGONER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED ABOUT SEVEN MILES 
NORTHEAST OF BOONE WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE 
STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3636 8181 3635 8177 3635 8173 3640 8174
      3657 8146 3635 8123 3615 8183 3619 8185
      3619 8189 3623 8192 3626 8190 3630 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 244DEG 12KT 3632 8160

$$

16

619 
WWUS51 KRNK 222333
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
733 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

NCC009-189-193-230000-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-110523T0000Z/
ASHE NC-WATAUGA NC-WILKES NC-
733 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WILKES...NORTHERN WATAUGA AND ASHE COUNTIES...

AT 728 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BALDWIN...OR NEAR TODD...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TODD...
  BALDWIN...
  WEST JEFFERSON...
  MOUNT JEFFERSON...
  OTHELLO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE COMMUNITY 
OF TODD WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE 
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 3636 8181 3635 8177 3635 8173 3640 8174
      3657 8146 3635 8123 3634 8125 3622 8162
      3619 8189 3623 8192 3626 8190 3630 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 249DEG 13KT 3633 8154

$$

16

068 
WWUS51 KRNK 230001
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
801 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

NCC009-189-193-230010-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-110523T0000Z/
ASHE NC-WATAUGA NC-WILKES NC-
801 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WILKES...NORTHERN
WATAUGA AND ASHE COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 800 PM EDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW 
SEVERE LIMITS. THUS THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 
HOWEVER...THIS STORM WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE 
HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

LAT...LON 3636 8181 3635 8177 3635 8173 3640 8174
      3657 8146 3635 8123 3634 8125 3622 8162
      3619 8189 3623 8192 3626 8190 3630 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 249DEG 13KT 3633 8154

$$

16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
552 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT
TRAILING INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO TEXAS.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING A FROM WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 333 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR THE WRN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA. EXPECT COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS E TN/E KY TO MAKE IT INTO
SE WV/SW VA/NW NC INTO THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE OR LARGE HAIL. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSESS...INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS HAS BECOME WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST AREA
NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR. LITTLE TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF BRING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN AROUND 23Z/7PM
AND 04Z/MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE IN ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. COMBINED WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. TRENDED
LOWS TOWARD THE MILDER MET GUIDANCE.

A SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS NOT AS CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SOLUTION. STILL KEPT CHANCE PROBABILITY IN FOR MUCH OF DAY.
WITH WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSE TO WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
BUT HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS AND RAIN THERE IS IN THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE TO MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS THE
FOCUS FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT MORE
TOWARDS OH/PA BY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE PROJECTED PATHS OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING THROUGH THE OVERALL GENERAL LONGWAVE
TROUGH PATTERN OVER CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANTICIPATE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TWO DISTINCT AND IMPORTANT TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE.
FIRST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BE EITHER DIRECTLY OVER OUR
REGION...OR JUST TO OUR WEST. EITHER PATTERN TRANSLATES TO STRONG
DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT A GENEROUS
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
REGION...BUT NOT REALLY HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN OUR AIR MASS
IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND...AND POTENTIALLY MORE INTENSE...SYSTEM WILL
TAKE AIM ON THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND BEST TRACK OF THE MOISTURE...BUT THIS TOO
MAY BE A PERIOD OF VERY ACTIVE AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER. WE
WILL ALSO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD. MULTIPLE DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY WARRANT WATCHES LATER IN THE
WEEK THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE GROUND SATURATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS THROUGH 00Z WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF STORMS AT ANY INDIVIDUAL AIRPORT IS TOO
LOW BEFORE 00Z TO ADD TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH TE MID ATLANTIC REGION LEAVING THE
AREA IN A HUMID UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN TENNESSEE AT 18Z IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...REACHING BLF AND LWB AROUND 23Z AND LYH AND DAN
AROUND 03Z. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF WERE VERY SIMILAR IN THE TIMING OF
THE PRECIPITATION. USED THIS GUIDANCE TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE TAFS. HAD KEPT CONDITIONS MVFR IN THE TAFS WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT AND ANY
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RAIN IN THE EVENING WILL LIKELY HAVE FOG JUST
AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. HAVE ADDED MVFR FOG TO THE TAFS SINCE RAIN IS
EXPECTED.

MODELS WERE IN LESS AGREEMENT WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
SOME SUGGEST THERE MAY BE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SOLUTION HAS MORE
STORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO PUT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDER IN
THE TAFS BEFORE 18Z MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MTNS...MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
558 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

NCZ001-002-018-019-VAZ007-009>013-015-016-WVZ042>045-232200-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-
PULASKI-GRAYSON-CARROLL-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
558 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ003>006-020-VAZ014-017>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-232200-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
558 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR INTO THIS
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE GREATEST CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
533 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

VAZ034-222230-
BEDFORD VA-
533 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BEDFORD COUNTY...

AT 529 PM EDT...A SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
STEWARTSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA-SIZED HAIL. PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE WATER TO POND
ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR STEWARTSVILLE AROUND 550 PM.

LAT...LON 3733 7969 3721 7973 3725 7985 3727 7985
      3730 7984 3732 7985 3732 7984 3733 7982

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
639 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             5 NNE SUGAR GROVE       36.33N 81.76W
05/22/2011  E0.50 INCH       WATAUGA            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUST IN ZIONVILLE.

0620 PM     HAIL             ENE STEWARTSVILLE       37.27N 79.79W
05/22/2011  E0.88 INCH       BEDFORD            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WHP